11/30 Picks

POR at DET -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +4.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at PHI -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6
Underdog: N/A

HOU at DEN -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHX -9
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -9
Underdog: N/A

TOR at LAL -12
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -12
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	2	50.0%
SPREAD	4	5	80.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/29 Picks

I'm going to start posting the spread for every game. To predict the games, there is a formula A and a formula B. When the two agree, they are about 65% accurate. B on its own is only 60% accurate. However, A has only picked half as many games as B, so for betting, the sheer number of bets available for B makes up for the slightly lower win %.

IND at ORL -8.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: IND +8.5
Underdog: N/A

ATL at WAS -1
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL +1
Underdog: ATL

BOS -12 at CHA
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12
Underdog: N/A

GS at NYK -8.5
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -8.5
Underdog: N/A

DEN -4 at MIN
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

OKC at MEM -8
Winner: MEM
Spread: MEM -8
Underdog: N/A

SAS at HOU -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU -4
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at MIL
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -7
Underdog: N/A

NJ at UTA -8
Winner: UTA
Spread: NJ +8
Underdog: N/A

DAL -5 at SAC
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at LAC -1
Winner: MIA
Spread: MIA +1
Underdog: MIA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	10	70.0%
SPREAD	7	10	70.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

11/28 Picks

ATL at TOR -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL +5.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at CLE -11.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN -2.5 at OKC
Winner: MIN
Spread: MIN -2.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at PHX -8.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIL at DET -9
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHA at IND -7.5
Winner: IND
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MEM at SAS -10
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at UTA -11
Winner: UTA
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO at POR -5
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

DAL at LAL -11
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	1	2	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/27 Picks

ORL -3.5 at WAS
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -3.5
Underdog: N/A

NO at DEN EVEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/25 Picks

GS -1.5 at WAS, 211
Winner: GS
Spread: GS +1.5
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at NYK, 213
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHX -10 at OKC, 199
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

IND -1 at DAL, 180
Winner: IND
Spread: IND -1
Underdog: N/A

NJ at LAL -13.5, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	5	80.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Week of 11/16 Record

Not bad for the first week. 13-8 (62%) against the spread looks pretty good to me. At 100 unit bets, that's a gain of +630 units.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	33	41	80.5%
SPREAD	13	21	61.9%
UNDERDOG WIN	7	11	63.6%

11/24 Picks

MIL at ORL -8.5, 190
Winner: ORL
Spread: MIL +8.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3 at CHA, 176
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

HOU -4 at MIA, 187
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAS -3.5 at MEM, 181
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at UTA -7, 202
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at POR -11.5, 205
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO -6 at LAC, 186
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -6
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	2	2	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/23 Picks

Check out this week's Power Rankings

Boring day...nothing to bet on.

BOS -5 at TOR, 185
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at PHI -6.5, 208
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN at DET -10, 189
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at DEN -8.5,
Winner: DEN
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at LAL -17, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

11/22 Picks

HOU at ORL -2, 184.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

MIL at CHA -2.5, 180
Winner: MIL
Spread: MIL +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: MIL

ATL at CLE -11, 197.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: SPLIT

IND at MIA -5.5, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC at NJ -3.5, 190.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NYK -2.5, 204
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -2.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

OKC at NO -15.5, 190.5
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

UTA at MEM -3, 188
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +3
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: UTA

POR at PHX -5.5, 198.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	8	87.5%
SPREAD	3	5	60.0%
O/U	1	5	20.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

11/21 Picks

Just a reminder: when the prediction says SPLIT, the algorithms didn't agree, so there's no pick for that bet.

Today's underdogs are IND over ORL -2.5 and UTA over SAS -4.5. To date, underdog picks are 18-6 (75%). The record for all straight up wins is 88-25 (77.9%).

ORL -2.5 at IND, 201
Winner: IND
Spread: IND +2.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: IND

LAC at PHI -9, 189.5
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

HOU -6.5 at WAS, 183
Winner: HOU
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NJ at TOR -8.5, 196
Winner: TOR
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

CHA at ATL -8, 188.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

BOS -7 at MIN, 183.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

MEM at DAL -9, 195.5
Winner: DAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

NYK at MIL -3, 208.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAS -4.5, 174
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +4.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: UTA

NO -10 at OKC, 191
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

POR -4.5 at SAC, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

CHI at GS -4, 213.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

DEN at LAL -8.5, 205
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	10	70.0%
SPREAD	1	2	50.0%
O/U	5	9	55.6%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

11/20 Picks

DET at BOS -6, 184.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

LAL -5 at PHX, 207
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
O/U	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/19 Picks

***The preceding post is important***

How to read predictions:

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

WAS plays at ATL. ATL is a 7 point favorite. The O/U line is 200. The predicted winner is ATL. ATL will cover the 7 point spread. The total points will be less than 200.

If it says SPLIT, the algorithms disagreed, so there's no prediction. Underdog is N/A when an underdog was not predicted to win.

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

CLE at DET -2.5, 190
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: CLE

TOR at MIA -2.5, 188.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

DAL at HOU -3, 190
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3.5 at MIN, 189
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at NO -13.5, 197
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC -1 at OKC, 187.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

DEN at SAS -1, 181
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN +1
OU: OVER
Underdog: DEN

MIL at UTA -10.5, 190
Winner: UTA
Spread: MIL +10.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

CHI at POR -6.5, 195
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

Kind of a disappointing first day. Oh well.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	6	50.0%
SPREAD	2	5	40.0%
O/U	3	6	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

2008-09 Season Has Begun

I've been tracking picks since the beginning of the season and they are looking awesome. Since I haven't been posting, you'll have to take my word for it. From now on I'll try to keep up with it daily, though with my schedule I can't guarantee it. There will also be weekly power rankings, complete with numerical ratings, starting today. You can find them on the right side of the blog.

There are several different top secret equations that work in conjunction to make the picks which means I won't have a pick up for every game. (though I will have a huge number of picks posted.) I've also started tracking a pretty sexy metric: Win percentage when picking the underdog. Now you'll know which underdogs to pick straight up to make the big bucks. One more thing, the O/U picks are finally working, for now, at least.

From 11/1 thru 11/18:

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	83	105	79.0%
SPREAD	46	69	66.7%
O/U	44	66	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	17	21	81.0%

You read that right. 79% picking the winner, 66.7% ATS, 66.7% O/U, and 81% correct picking the underdog.

NBA '08-'09 Season

Hey Everybody,

The season is underway, so it's time for NBA Black Box to follow suit. By nature, predictions based on statistics become more accurate as more data becomes available. This means that it will take some time before the picks are accurate enough to post. I look at the process as 3 stages.

1) Allow enough statistics to become available for accurate predictions.
2) Track the predictions for a suitable amount of time to ensure that the trend has begun.
3) Start posting 'em.

Since the season is 1 week old, we're still in the 1st stage. I've got no clue how long it will take before we make it to stage 3, but I'm guessing it won't be for another month. Keep checking back periodically to catch when it starts up. Or, send your email address to blackboxsports@gmail.com and I'll notify you when the predictions begin.

Either way, head over to nflblackbox.blogspot.com to check out NFLSim, the play-by-play NFL simulator predicting the winners, spread, and over/under for every game. Magical things are happening, don't miss out.