12/31 Picks

No ***** picks today...

ORL -5.5 at CHI
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -5.5
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at DET -6
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	NJ +6
Underdog:	N/A
DEN -2 at TOR
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -2
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at HOU -8
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	MIL +8
Underdog:	N/A
GS -3 at OKC
Winner:	Golden State
Spread:	GS -3
Underdog:	N/A
PHI -4 at LAC
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	PHI -4
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	5	6	83.3%
SPREAD	4	6	66.7%
*****	0	0	---
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/30 Picks

Vegas is getting good with their lines...

If CHA -5 goes to at least CHA -4, then CHA -4.

If CLE -5 goes to at least CLE -6, then CLE -6, no *****

If PHX -2.5 goes to at least PHX -2, then PHX -2, no *****

ATL at IND -1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +1 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at CHA -5
Winner:	Charlotte
Spread:	NYK +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -5 at MIA
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX -2.5 at MEM
Winner:	Phoenix
Spread:	PHX -2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at NO -15
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	NO -15
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at SAS -8
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -8
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at DAL -12.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
BOS -4.5 at POR
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	BOS -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
LAC at SAC -2.5
Winner:	LA Clippers
Spread:	LAC +2.5 *****
Underdog:	LAC

4-1 ***** picks... nice.

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	3	7	42.9%
SPREAD	4	9	44.4%
*****	4	5	80.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

12/29 Picks

If ATL -5 goes to ATL -3 or lower, then DEN +3.

If ORL -3 goes to ORL -4 or higher, ORL -4.

DEN at ATL -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -3 at DET
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHI at NJ -5.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +5.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at MIN -2
Winner:	Memphis
Spread:	MEM +2 *****
Underdog:	Memphis
PHX -9.5 at OKC
Winner:	Phoenix
Spread:	PHX -9.5
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at HOU -13
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -13
Underdog:	N/A
PHI at UTA -6.5
Winner:	Utah
Spread:	UTA -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
TOR -1 at GS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR -1
Underdog:	N/A

They can't all be winners:

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	2	5	40.0%
SPREAD	2	8	25.0%
*****	1	4	25.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

Power Rankings, 12/28

New power rankings are up. MIL dropped. LAC and NO up.
For a comparison, Hollinger's top 10 are:
1. CLE
2. BOS
3. ORL
4. LAL
5. HOU
6. DEN
7. NO
8. POR
9. ATL
10. UTA

Last Week's Results

Good news, everyone: I've started tracking the confidence of picks based on the difference between the predicted score and the spread. Once I get a sufficiently large sample size, I'll share the results. This has the potential to increase the accuracy even further...

A great guy named eric has a model of his own. When his system agrees with my system, the picks are 18-1 (94.7%) :-O. That includes both ***** and regular picks. Every once in a while he posts the pick in the day's comment section, so keep an eye out for those.

Finally, the donations I receive don't actually go to beer, they go to the development of Black Box Sports: web site, monitor/contest costs, etc. With your help, I'll have the incentive to keep working to improve my simulators and algorithms. A baseball simulator is on the way. NHL and soccer models are in the very early stages. I'm toying with the ideas of boxing and horse racing if I can find enough free statistics to make them work. Of course, school comes first, so I'm not setting any deadlines - I'll work on them when I can.


Wow, what a week.

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	40	48	83.3%
SPREAD	34	56	60.7%
*****	18	24	75.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	3	4	75.0%

***** picks: +1140 units, ROI 47.5%. Even better than last week.

12/28 Picks

Early game today. I'll post everything for now, if there are major line changes, I'll fix it with a note describing the changes. Lots of covers but only 1 ***** pick.

If DAL -5 goes to at least DAL -6, then it will become DAL -6, but no *****.
<><><> Nowitzki is out, but the model doesn't take into account injuries, so now it's DAL *****

Otherwise, there are no games even close to changing with a line change.

DEN -4.5 at NYK
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at LAC
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIA at CLE -10.5
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
NO -3 at IND
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NO -3
Underdog:	N/A
BOS -12 at SAC
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -12
Underdog:	N/A
GS at LAL -13
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -13
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	5	5	100.0%
SPREAD	4	6	66.7%
*****	1	1	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

23-day ***** streak goes to 51-16 (76.1%).

12/27 Picks

To all those that graciously sent in donations today, tonight was for you. Karma was on your side, with a 4-0 ***** performance. Thanks again.

CHI at ATL -10
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -10
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at CHA -2.5
Winner:	New Jersey
Spread:	NJ +2.5 *****
Underdog:	New Jersey
OKC at WAS -7
Winner:	Washington
Spread:	OKC +7
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -10 at MIN
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -10
Underdog:	N/A
DET at MIL -5
Winner:	Milwaukee
Spread:	DET +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at SAS -12.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at HOU -9
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	UTA +9 *****
Underdog:	N/A
TOR at POR -8
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	POR -8 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	7	8	87.5%
SPREAD	6	8	75.0%
*****	4	4	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	1	100.0%

I love perfect nights. Today's 5-Star parlay payed 13 to 1.

This brings the ri-freakin'-diculous 22-day, 5-Star win streak, to 50-16 (75.8%). +3240 units. ROI: 49.1%. Nice.

12/26 Picks

Fresh off the cruise where internet cost $0.75/min. Was able to get picks posted on the 23rd, but decided to take yesterday off. If anyone feels generous and wants to send a few dollars through PayPal, send me an email, it would be much appreciated.

Happy Hanukah and Merry Christmas to all. Lots of 5-Star picks today, best of luck.

Exceptions to the rule:

If NJ -4.5 becomes -3.5, then the bet becomes NJ -3.5

If NO becomes NO -1.5, then the bet becomes NO -1.5, no 5-star

If MEM -1.5 becomes MEM -1, then the bet becomes IND -1, no 5-Star

If UTA -2.5 becomes UTA -3.5, then UTA -3.5, no 5-Star
If UTA -2.5 becomes UTA -4, then DAL +4 *****

CHI at MIA -5.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +5.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at NJ -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +4.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at NYK -6.5
Winner:	New York
Spread:	NYK -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at NO
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	NO *****
Underdog:	N/A
IND at MEM -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at DET -10
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	DET -10
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at UTA -2.5
Winner:	Utah
Spread:	UTA -2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHI at DEN -6.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
TOR -3 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR -3
Underdog:	N/A
BOS -10.5 at GS
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -10.5
Underdog:	N/A

Those last Memphis free throws were a killer...

This was the first day in a week and a half where ***** picks didn't go over 50%. The last day was 12/16 where they went 0-1. Not too shabby.

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	4	6	66.7%
SPREAD	4	10	40.0%
*****	3	6	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/23 Picks

HOU at CLE -7.5
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -7.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at IND -2
Winner:	Indiana
Spread:	IND -2
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at ATL -11.5
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -11.5
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at CHA -6
Winner:	Charlotte
Spread:	CHA -6
Underdog:	N/A
GS at MIA -8.5
Winner:	Miami
Spread:	MIA -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
PHI at BOS -13.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -13.5
Underdog:	N/A
CHI at DET -6.5
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	CHI +6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
LAL at NO -2.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	LA Lakers
UTA at MIL -1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	UTA +1 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at DAL -11.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -11.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at SAS -12.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at POR -8
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	DEN +8 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	10	11	90.9%
SPREAD	6	12	50.0%
*****	3	5	60.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	1	100.0%

Lost too many games by a friggin' half-point...

12/22 Picks

I'm leaving soon, so these early lines are the best I can do.

If HOU -4 ***** moves to -4.5 or greater, then the bet becomes HOU -4.5

If DEN -3.5 ***** moves to -3 or smaller, then the bet becomes DEN -3

GS at ORL -12
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -12
Underdog:	N/A
HOU -4 at NJ
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
LAL -10.5 at MEM
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
SAC at SAS -13
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -13
Underdog:	N/A
POR at DEN -3.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
TOR at LAC -3
Winner:	Toronto
Spread:	TOR +3 *****
Underdog:	Toronto

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	6	6	100.0%
SPREAD	5	6	83.3%
*****	3	3	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	1	100.0%

Last Week's Results

Another good week.

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP WIN	29	39	74.4%
SPREAD	31	51	60.8%
*****	14	19	73.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

***** picks: +850 units, ROI 45%. Not bad for one week.

I'll be out of town next week, so I may or may not be able to post picks, depending on whether or not I can find the interweb. I'll try my hardest to get Tuesday's, Friday's, and Saturday's picks up since there are lots of games those days.

Power Rankings, 12/21

This week's power rankings are up...no big changes.

12/21 Picks

DET at ATL -4
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -4
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at BOS -14.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -14.5
Underdog:	N/A
DAL -6 at WAS
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -6
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -13 at OKC
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -13
Underdog:	N/A

That last OKC shot pissed off a loooot of people.

Vegas changed the line of the 5-star DET game minutes after I posted it...coincidence? maybe.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	3	4	75.0%
*****	0	0	---
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/20 Picks

Thankfully not as many rules as last night. Let's hope for a big night tonight.

If LAL -1.5 becomes LAL -0.5, LAL -0.5 *****

If NJ -5 becomes NJ -3, NJ -3

If UTA -2.5 becomes UTA -3.5, CHI +3.5 *****

If SAS -10.5 becomes SAS -11.5, TOR +11.5 *****

GS at CHA -7
Winner:	Charlotte
Spread:	CHA -7
Underdog:	N/A
LAL -1.5 at ORL
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -1.5
Underdog:	N/A
IND at PHI -10.5
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	IND +10.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
SAC at NO -15.5
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	NO -15.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIA at NJ -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIA+5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
HOU -5.5 at MIN
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -5.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
UTA -2.5 at CHI
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	UTA -2.5
Underdog:	N/A
LAC at MIL -6
Winner:	Milwaukee
Spread:	MIL -6
Underdog:	N/A
TOR at SAS -10.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	TOR +10.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at PHX -5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN +5 *****
Underdog:	DEN

***** Picks rocked it again, 4-1. That last Denver game killed me, would've really liked a 5-0 night.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	8	50.0%
SPREAD	5	10	50.0%
*****	4	5	80.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

15-day streak goes to 34-10 (77.2%), +2300, ROI 52.3%

Word of Caution

Just because the past two weeks have gone 27-7, it doesn't mean the next two can't go 7-27. Try not to get complacent because of a few weeks. Stick to your betting strategy, stick with NBA Black Box, and in the long run you'll make money. Also, keep you fingers crossed for the 12 games tonight and 10 tomorrow.

Good luck,

Jonathan
Black Box Sports

12/19 Picks

LAC at IND -2.5
Winner:	Indiana
Spread:	IND -2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHI at WAS
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	PHI *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHI at BOS -12.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
DAL -3.5 at NJ
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at NYK -4
Winner:	New York
Spread:	MIL +4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
GS at ATL -10.5
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at DET -3
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	DET -3
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at MEM -4
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
TOR -6 at OKC
Winner:	Toronto
Spread:	TOR -6
Underdog:	N/A
LAL -7.5 at MIA
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -7.5
Underdog:	N/A
SAC at HOU -12.5
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
CLE at DEN
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CLE
Underdog:	N/A

Not a great night overall, but you still made money betting on the ***** games.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	10	40.0%
SPREAD	6	12	50.0%
*****	3	5	60.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

That brings the 14-day streak to 30-9 (76.9%), +2010, ROI 51.5%.

12/18 Picks

Only 2 picks tonight, can't wait till tomorrow night when there will be 12...sweet.


*****Portland is a 5-Star pick at -4, but if it goes to -5.5, it will not be a 5-Star pick. (But still POR -5.5)
Also, if ORL goes to -0.5, it will become a 5-Star pick, ORL -0.5

SAS at ORL -2
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -2
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at POR -4
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	POR -4 *****
Underdog:	N/A

Another perfect night.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	2	2	100.0%
*****	1	1	100.0%

The amazing 13 day 5-Star streak is up to 27-7 (79.4%), +2000 units. ROI of 58.8%!

12/17 Picks

MIL at PHI -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
BOS -4 at ATL
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -4
Underdog:	N/A
GS at IND -6.5
Winner:	Indiana
Spread:	IND -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
DAL -2.5 at TOR
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -2.5
Underdog:	N/A
UTA -2.5 at NJ
Winner:	Utah
Spread:	UTA -2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at DET -10.5
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	DET -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -10 at MIN
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -10
Underdog:	N/A
LAC at CHI -3
Winner:	Chicago
Spread:	CHI -3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
SAS at NO -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NO -2.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	7	100.0%
SPREAD	7	9	77.8%
*****	2	3	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

What a great night...

The ridiculous 12-day streak continues with 5-Star picks hitting 26-7 (78.8%) ATS, +1830 units.