12/14 Picks

Sorry for the late start this morning, the semester just ended. I don't have to spell it out for you. But it's alright, the NO-TOR game wasn't a 5-Star game.

MIA -1.5 at MEM
Winner:	Miami
Spread:	MIA -1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at SAS -16.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -16.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at LAL -15.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -15.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	3	100.0%
SPREAD	1	3	33.3%
*****	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/13 Picks

***** Picks: 6-0. Yesterday's 5-Star Parlay payed off 50 to 1. That brings the 5-Star record to 16-3, or 84.2% over the past 7 days. Actually, there were 2 other perfect 5-Star days in that period (both 3-0). If you bet $100/unit, you're up $1270. If you throw a dart to make your picks, the chances of you hitting 16 out of 19 is 0.18%. Ok, enough of that.

I've got a final from 2-5 pm, central. After a day like yesterday, I can't skip today. If picks aren't up by 2, check back before the games start.

Some close ones: If the SAC line moves to 0.5, it's no longer *****, but NYK +.5
If DET moves to 2.5, it's not *****, but DET -2.5

CLE -4.5 at ATL
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
DET -2 at CHA
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	DET -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at PHI -5.5
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	PHI -5.5
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at CHI -4
Winner:	Chicago
Spread:	CHI -4
Underdog:	N/A
IND at MIL -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +4.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at DAL -12.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
ORL at UTA -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
GS at DEN -15.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -15.5
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at SAC -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
HOU -4 at LAC
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -4
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	5	7	71.4%
SPREAD	6	10	60.0%
*****	3	4	75.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/12 Picks

Today seems like a good day to start posting the O/U. It didn't work last season, but for some reason it's pretty accurate now. Maybe I gave up on it too soon last year. So far, unanimous picks are 98-66 (59.8%). I guess that's good enough to post. Don't mind the formatting, I put in the O/U as an afterthought so it didn't fit the right way. I'll change the format tomorrow because I don't feel like re-doing the table now. Pretty easy to figure out, ATL at MIA is 192.5, the pick is OVER.

Which reminds me, my final final is tomorrow, so I can't guarantee picks.

ATL at MIA -2.5	192.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
PHI at CLE -10.5	189.5
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -10.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
TOR at NJ -3	205
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	UNDER
CHI -2 at MEM	199.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI -2
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	UNDER
SAS -8.5 at MIN	192.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
NO at BOS -6.5	188.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
IND at DET -7	200
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	IND +7 ****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
ORL at PHX -1.5	209.5
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL +1.5 *****
Underdog:	Orlando
O/U:	SPLIT
LAC at POR -8.5	189
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	POR -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
SAC at LAL -16.5	215
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -16.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
HOU -1.5 at GS	215
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -1.5 *****
Underdog: O/U:	N/A UNDER

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	8	11	72.7%
*****	6	6	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%
O/U	3	7	42.9%

12/11 Picks & Other Things as Well

Hey loyal Black Boxers, I'd like to ask two favors. I take the time every morning to run the program and post the picks, then every night I post the results. Since I'm commiting this time, I'd like to know if I'm helping people out. If I am helping, then I'll be happy to continue to habitually post these picks. So, please take a second to email me at blackboxsports@gmail.com or just post a comment at the bottom of the post. It doesn't have to be long, maybe just "I'm up $x" or "You ruined me, asshole." I'd also love to here some suggestions and I'll be glad to implement them wherever possible.

Second, please tell all of your friends about NBA Black Box, and NFL Black Box, for that matter. If you've got a website of your own, let's trade links. If you go to forums, make mention of it. Traffic to NBA Black Box is up over 100% from a month ago, thanks to all of you. But, I think we can do better. Everyone deserves to benefit from Black Box Sports.

One more thing: the URL www.blackboxsports.com is already taken, which is very disappointing because Black Box Sports is an awesome name and it perfectly describes this operation. I'd like to get a website of my own, so the time to change names is drawing near. Therefore, I'll be holding a competition to decide on a new name. The winner gets a sweet prize which will totally be worth the minimal effort it takes to think of a name and email to me. The guidelines are as follows: 1) The name has to allude to some sort of computer/programming/science-y/simulation/mathematics subject. For example, a black box is a system where one enters input information into a program and receives an output without being able to see the calculations that transformed the data. That's what NFL and NBA Black Box are. 2) The name must have an available URL and not already be in use. 3) Most importantly, it has to be sexy.

That's all I have to say for now. Thanks!

Jonathan

BOS -10.5 at WAS
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at DAL -13.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -13.5
Underdog:	N/A
POR at UTA -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR +2.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	1	3	33.3%
*****	0	0	---
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/10 Picks

IND at TOR -3
Winner:	Toronto
Spread:	TOR -3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at NJ -8.5
Winner:	New Jersey
Spread:	NYK +8.5
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -7 at PHI
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -7
Underdog:	N/A
MEM -2 at OKC
Winner:	Memphis
Spread:	MEM -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at NO -13
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	CHA +13
Underdog:	N/A
ATL at SAS -6.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at DEN -12.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at GS -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at LAL -12.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -12.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	7	85.7%
SPREAD	5	9	55.6%
*****	3	4	75.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/9 Picks

DET-5.5 at WAS
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5
Underdog: N/A

TOR at CLE -12
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -12 *****
Underdog: N/A

UTA -5 at MIN
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -5
Underdog: N/A

ATL at HOU -4.5
Winner: HOU
Spread: ATL +4.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CHI -7.5
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -7.5
Underdog: N/A

SAS -1.5 at DAL
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DAL +1.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIL at PHX -6
Winner: PHX
Spread: MIL +6
Underdog: N/A

ORL at POR -5
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -13 at SAC
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -13
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	5	8	62.5%
SPREAD	1	9	11.1%
*****	1	3	33.3%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/8 Picks

CHA at MIA -8
Winner: MIA
Spread: CHA +8 *****
Underdog: N/A

GS -1 at OKC
Winner: GS
Spread: GS -1 *****
Underdog: N/A

HOU -8 at MEM
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -8
Underdog: N/A

ORL -3.5 at LAC
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -3.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	4	75.0%
SPREAD	3	4	75.0%
*****	3	3	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Last Week's Results, Power Rankings

No big changes in rankings this week. Toronto crashed down 6 spots. The Lakers are still at the top, but their lead over Cleveland and Boston is quickly diminishing.

Last week's results:

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	31	37	83.8%
SPREAD	24	49	49.0%
*****	7	14	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	4	50.0%

Mediocre week ATS, but 31-6 picking the winner, not bad.

12/7 Picks

POR -2.5 at TOR
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -2.5
Underdog: N/A

BOS -7.5 at IND
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -7.5
Underdog: N/A

MIL at LAL -13.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -13.5
Underdog: N/A

Lost all 3 by 1 basket...ouch.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	3	100.0%
SPREAD	0	3	0.0%
*****	0	0	---
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/6 Picks

CLE -8 at CHA
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -8
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHI -2.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NJ +2.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

OKC at MIA -11
Winner: MIA
Spread: MIA -11
Underdog: N/A

LAC at MIN -2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +2 *****
Underdog: N/A

MEM at NO -14.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -14.5
Underdog: N/A

GS at SAS -12
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -12
Underdog: N/A

ATL at DAL -7.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL +7.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

WAS at CHI -8.5
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -8.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at PHX -7.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: UTA +7.5
Underdog: N/A

DEN -5 at SAC
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	7	100.0%
SPREAD	8	10	80.0%
*****	3	3	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/5 Picks

OKC at ORL -13
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -13
Underdog: N/A

LAL -11.5 at WAS
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -11.5
Underdog: N/A

NYK at ATL -10.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -10.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at CLE -11
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -11
Underdog: N/A

MIN at NJ -6.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NJ -6.5
Underdog: N/A

POR at BOS -8
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8
Underdog: N/A

PHI at DET -8
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -8
Underdog: N/A

LAC -1 at MEM
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC -1
Underdog: N/A

GS at HOU -9.5
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -9.5
Underdog: N/A

CHA at MIL -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +4.5
Underdog: N/A

TOR at UTA -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: TOR +6
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	7	85.7%
SPREAD	4	11	36.4%
*****	0	0	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	0.0%

12/4 Picks

I decided to take a look back at the past 600 games, give or take, to figure out a way to quantify the probabilities of games. Based on the win probabilities of games given differences in my calculated spread and Vegas' spread, with the help of some linear regression, I've come up with a reasonable way to assign probabilities. As of now, it's completely untested. I'll post it, but I've got no idea how well it'll work, so we'll figure it out as we go along. The minimum possible probability is 60% because no difference in predicted and Vegas lines has been less than 60% accurate. Technically a game could get up to 100% but that's extremely unlikely. I'll track it from now on, maybe it'll work perfectly or not at all, who knows...

PHX at DAL -1
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +1, 71% *****
Underdog: PHX

SAS at DEN -4
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4, 66%
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	0	1	0.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0.0%
*****	0	2	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

NBA Lines

I've been getting some emails about inconsistencies and possible errors with the lines. I try to get everything through the formulas as soon as I can, using the earliest possible lines. If anyone's got some ideas as to how I can improve this, please post a comment or send me an email.

I'm open to any and all suggestions. Since I'm doing this for free, I've got no reason to try to inflate my record, I'm just trying to help people out. I'm willing to do whatever is necessary to improve the consistency.

Thanks!

12/3 Picks

I never realized how drastically Vegas' lines changed hour-by-hour until yesterday. When I ran the numbers, DAL was a 5.5 point favorite. A few hours later, it was up to 11. If the current line is vastly different from the line I posted, use your judgment as to whether or not you should act on it.

I'm also going to put ***** next to the higher probability picks. Yesterday, I was 4-4 overall, but the higher probability picks were 3-1. It can't hurt to give out a little more info. Leave it up to you guys to decide what sort of risk you're willing to take. For an idea of the difference in accuracy, the regular picks hit 60.4% over 212 games over the past month. ***** picks went 66% over 94 games. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

MEM at ATL -9
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -9
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at WAS
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -7 at PHI
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7
Underdog: N/A

MIN at ORL -9
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -9
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CLE -14.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -14.5
Underdog: N/A

OKC at CHA -8.5
Winner: CHA
Spread: CHA -8.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at BOS -12.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at MIL -3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3 *****
Underdog: N/A

PHX at NO -5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +5 *****
Underdog: PHX

LAC at HOU -3
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIA at UTA -3
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	6	11	54.5%
*****	1	4	25.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

12/2 Picks

LAL -8.5 at IND
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8.5
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NJ -5.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -5.5
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at NYK
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at CHI -3
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -3
Underdog:

LAC at DAL -11
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -11
Underdog: N/A

DET at SAS -4
Winner: DET
Spread: DET +4
Underdog: DET

TOR at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAC -2
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +2
Underdog: UTA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	4	8	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

12/1 Picks

MIN at CHA -3.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -3.5
Underdog: N/A

ORL at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA -2 at GS
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA -2
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	2	3	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Week ending 11/30 Results

Another great week to follow NBA Black Box. At $10 a unit, the spread gained 53 units, going 13-7. Predicting the winner straight up did also did well, including picking the underdog, though there were only 3 games.

This past week, I switched the type of spread pick I posted. In the 11/29 post, I gave details. Pre-switch, NBA Black Box was 2-3 (40.0%), post-switch, NBA Black Box was 11-4 (73.3%). That change has worked out nicely so far.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	34	42	81.0%
SPREAD	13	20	65.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	3	66.7%

11/30 Power Rankings

New power rankings are up for this week. No changes in the top 3, still the Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics, though the Lakers' lead is narrowing. The Mavericks shot up 7 places this week to number 9, while the 76ers crashed down 6 places to 15. The Clippers and Thunder are still holding the bottom spots. (OKC couldn't come up with a better team name than "Thunder"? Isn't there a WNBA team named Thunder? At least now there's another non-plural team to join the Heat, Jazz, and Magic.)

11/30 Picks

POR at DET -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +4.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at PHI -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6
Underdog: N/A

HOU at DEN -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHX -9
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -9
Underdog: N/A

TOR at LAL -12
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -12
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	2	50.0%
SPREAD	4	5	80.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/29 Picks

I'm going to start posting the spread for every game. To predict the games, there is a formula A and a formula B. When the two agree, they are about 65% accurate. B on its own is only 60% accurate. However, A has only picked half as many games as B, so for betting, the sheer number of bets available for B makes up for the slightly lower win %.

IND at ORL -8.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: IND +8.5
Underdog: N/A

ATL at WAS -1
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL +1
Underdog: ATL

BOS -12 at CHA
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12
Underdog: N/A

GS at NYK -8.5
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -8.5
Underdog: N/A

DEN -4 at MIN
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

OKC at MEM -8
Winner: MEM
Spread: MEM -8
Underdog: N/A

SAS at HOU -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU -4
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at MIL
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -7
Underdog: N/A

NJ at UTA -8
Winner: UTA
Spread: NJ +8
Underdog: N/A

DAL -5 at SAC
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at LAC -1
Winner: MIA
Spread: MIA +1
Underdog: MIA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	10	70.0%
SPREAD	7	10	70.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

11/28 Picks

ATL at TOR -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL +5.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at CLE -11.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN -2.5 at OKC
Winner: MIN
Spread: MIN -2.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at PHX -8.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIL at DET -9
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHA at IND -7.5
Winner: IND
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MEM at SAS -10
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at UTA -11
Winner: UTA
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO at POR -5
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

DAL at LAL -11
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	1	2	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/27 Picks

ORL -3.5 at WAS
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -3.5
Underdog: N/A

NO at DEN EVEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/25 Picks

GS -1.5 at WAS, 211
Winner: GS
Spread: GS +1.5
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at NYK, 213
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHX -10 at OKC, 199
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

IND -1 at DAL, 180
Winner: IND
Spread: IND -1
Underdog: N/A

NJ at LAL -13.5, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	5	80.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Week of 11/16 Record

Not bad for the first week. 13-8 (62%) against the spread looks pretty good to me. At 100 unit bets, that's a gain of +630 units.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	33	41	80.5%
SPREAD	13	21	61.9%
UNDERDOG WIN	7	11	63.6%

11/24 Picks

MIL at ORL -8.5, 190
Winner: ORL
Spread: MIL +8.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3 at CHA, 176
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

HOU -4 at MIA, 187
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAS -3.5 at MEM, 181
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at UTA -7, 202
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at POR -11.5, 205
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO -6 at LAC, 186
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -6
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	2	2	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/23 Picks

Check out this week's Power Rankings

Boring day...nothing to bet on.

BOS -5 at TOR, 185
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at PHI -6.5, 208
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN at DET -10, 189
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at DEN -8.5,
Winner: DEN
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at LAL -17, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

11/22 Picks

HOU at ORL -2, 184.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

MIL at CHA -2.5, 180
Winner: MIL
Spread: MIL +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: MIL

ATL at CLE -11, 197.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: SPLIT

IND at MIA -5.5, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC at NJ -3.5, 190.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NYK -2.5, 204
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -2.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

OKC at NO -15.5, 190.5
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

UTA at MEM -3, 188
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +3
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: UTA

POR at PHX -5.5, 198.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	8	87.5%
SPREAD	3	5	60.0%
O/U	1	5	20.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

11/21 Picks

Just a reminder: when the prediction says SPLIT, the algorithms didn't agree, so there's no pick for that bet.

Today's underdogs are IND over ORL -2.5 and UTA over SAS -4.5. To date, underdog picks are 18-6 (75%). The record for all straight up wins is 88-25 (77.9%).

ORL -2.5 at IND, 201
Winner: IND
Spread: IND +2.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: IND

LAC at PHI -9, 189.5
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

HOU -6.5 at WAS, 183
Winner: HOU
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NJ at TOR -8.5, 196
Winner: TOR
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

CHA at ATL -8, 188.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

BOS -7 at MIN, 183.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

MEM at DAL -9, 195.5
Winner: DAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

NYK at MIL -3, 208.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAS -4.5, 174
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +4.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: UTA

NO -10 at OKC, 191
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

POR -4.5 at SAC, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

CHI at GS -4, 213.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

DEN at LAL -8.5, 205
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	10	70.0%
SPREAD	1	2	50.0%
O/U	5	9	55.6%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

11/20 Picks

DET at BOS -6, 184.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

LAL -5 at PHX, 207
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
O/U	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/19 Picks

***The preceding post is important***

How to read predictions:

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

WAS plays at ATL. ATL is a 7 point favorite. The O/U line is 200. The predicted winner is ATL. ATL will cover the 7 point spread. The total points will be less than 200.

If it says SPLIT, the algorithms disagreed, so there's no prediction. Underdog is N/A when an underdog was not predicted to win.

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

CLE at DET -2.5, 190
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: CLE

TOR at MIA -2.5, 188.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

DAL at HOU -3, 190
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3.5 at MIN, 189
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at NO -13.5, 197
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC -1 at OKC, 187.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

DEN at SAS -1, 181
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN +1
OU: OVER
Underdog: DEN

MIL at UTA -10.5, 190
Winner: UTA
Spread: MIL +10.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

CHI at POR -6.5, 195
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

Kind of a disappointing first day. Oh well.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	6	50.0%
SPREAD	2	5	40.0%
O/U	3	6	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

2008-09 Season Has Begun

I've been tracking picks since the beginning of the season and they are looking awesome. Since I haven't been posting, you'll have to take my word for it. From now on I'll try to keep up with it daily, though with my schedule I can't guarantee it. There will also be weekly power rankings, complete with numerical ratings, starting today. You can find them on the right side of the blog.

There are several different top secret equations that work in conjunction to make the picks which means I won't have a pick up for every game. (though I will have a huge number of picks posted.) I've also started tracking a pretty sexy metric: Win percentage when picking the underdog. Now you'll know which underdogs to pick straight up to make the big bucks. One more thing, the O/U picks are finally working, for now, at least.

From 11/1 thru 11/18:

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	83	105	79.0%
SPREAD	46	69	66.7%
O/U	44	66	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	17	21	81.0%

You read that right. 79% picking the winner, 66.7% ATS, 66.7% O/U, and 81% correct picking the underdog.

NBA '08-'09 Season

Hey Everybody,

The season is underway, so it's time for NBA Black Box to follow suit. By nature, predictions based on statistics become more accurate as more data becomes available. This means that it will take some time before the picks are accurate enough to post. I look at the process as 3 stages.

1) Allow enough statistics to become available for accurate predictions.
2) Track the predictions for a suitable amount of time to ensure that the trend has begun.
3) Start posting 'em.

Since the season is 1 week old, we're still in the 1st stage. I've got no clue how long it will take before we make it to stage 3, but I'm guessing it won't be for another month. Keep checking back periodically to catch when it starts up. Or, send your email address to blackboxsports@gmail.com and I'll notify you when the predictions begin.

Either way, head over to nflblackbox.blogspot.com to check out NFLSim, the play-by-play NFL simulator predicting the winners, spread, and over/under for every game. Magical things are happening, don't miss out.