| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 33 | 41 | 80.5% |
| SPREAD | 13 | 21 | 61.9% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 7 | 11 | 63.6% |
Tuesday, 25 November 2008
Week of 11/16 Record
Not bad for the first week. 13-8 (62%) against the spread looks pretty good to me. At 100 unit bets, that's a gain of +630 units.
Monday, 24 November 2008
11/24 Picks
MIL at ORL -8.5, 190
Winner: ORL
Spread: MIL +8.5
Underdog: N/A
PHI -3 at CHA, 176
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
HOU -4 at MIA, 187
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAS -3.5 at MEM, 181
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
CHI at UTA -7, 202
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at POR -11.5, 205
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
NO -6 at LAC, 186
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -6
Underdog: N/A
Winner: ORL
Spread: MIL +8.5
Underdog: N/A
PHI -3 at CHA, 176
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
HOU -4 at MIA, 187
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAS -3.5 at MEM, 181
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
CHI at UTA -7, 202
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at POR -11.5, 205
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
NO -6 at LAC, 186
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -6
Underdog: N/A
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 0 | 0 | --- |
Sunday, 23 November 2008
11/23 Picks
Check out this week's Power Rankings
Boring day...nothing to bet on.
BOS -5 at TOR, 185
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
GS at PHI -6.5, 208
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
MIN at DET -10, 189
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
CHI at DEN -8.5,
Winner: DEN
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at LAL -17, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Boring day...nothing to bet on.
BOS -5 at TOR, 185
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
GS at PHI -6.5, 208
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
MIN at DET -10, 189
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
CHI at DEN -8.5,
Winner: DEN
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at LAL -17, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Saturday, 22 November 2008
11/22 Picks
HOU at ORL -2, 184.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
MIL at CHA -2.5, 180
Winner: MIL
Spread: MIL +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: MIL
ATL at CLE -11, 197.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: SPLIT
IND at MIA -5.5, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
LAC at NJ -3.5, 190.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
WAS at NYK -2.5, 204
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -2.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
OKC at NO -15.5, 190.5
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
UTA at MEM -3, 188
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +3
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: UTA
POR at PHX -5.5, 198.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
MIL at CHA -2.5, 180
Winner: MIL
Spread: MIL +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: MIL
ATL at CLE -11, 197.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: SPLIT
IND at MIA -5.5, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
LAC at NJ -3.5, 190.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
WAS at NYK -2.5, 204
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -2.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
OKC at NO -15.5, 190.5
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
UTA at MEM -3, 188
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +3
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: UTA
POR at PHX -5.5, 198.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 7 | 8 | 87.5% |
| SPREAD | 3 | 5 | 60.0% |
| O/U | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
Friday, 21 November 2008
11/21 Picks
Just a reminder: when the prediction says SPLIT, the algorithms didn't agree, so there's no pick for that bet.
Today's underdogs are IND over ORL -2.5 and UTA over SAS -4.5. To date, underdog picks are 18-6 (75%). The record for all straight up wins is 88-25 (77.9%).
ORL -2.5 at IND, 201
Winner: IND
Spread: IND +2.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: IND
LAC at PHI -9, 189.5
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
HOU -6.5 at WAS, 183
Winner: HOU
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
NJ at TOR -8.5, 196
Winner: TOR
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
CHA at ATL -8, 188.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
BOS -7 at MIN, 183.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
MEM at DAL -9, 195.5
Winner: DAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
NYK at MIL -3, 208.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
UTA at SAS -4.5, 174
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +4.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: UTA
NO -10 at OKC, 191
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
POR -4.5 at SAC, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
CHI at GS -4, 213.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
DEN at LAL -8.5, 205
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Today's underdogs are IND over ORL -2.5 and UTA over SAS -4.5. To date, underdog picks are 18-6 (75%). The record for all straight up wins is 88-25 (77.9%).
ORL -2.5 at IND, 201
Winner: IND
Spread: IND +2.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: IND
LAC at PHI -9, 189.5
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
HOU -6.5 at WAS, 183
Winner: HOU
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
NJ at TOR -8.5, 196
Winner: TOR
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
CHA at ATL -8, 188.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
BOS -7 at MIN, 183.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
MEM at DAL -9, 195.5
Winner: DAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
NYK at MIL -3, 208.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
UTA at SAS -4.5, 174
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +4.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: UTA
NO -10 at OKC, 191
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
POR -4.5 at SAC, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
CHI at GS -4, 213.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
DEN at LAL -8.5, 205
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 7 | 10 | 70.0% |
| SPREAD | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| O/U | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
Thursday, 20 November 2008
11/20 Picks
DET at BOS -6, 184.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
LAL -5 at PHX, 207
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
LAL -5 at PHX, 207
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 2 | 2 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| O/U | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 0 | 0 | --- |
Wednesday, 19 November 2008
11/19 Picks
***The preceding post is important***
How to read predictions:
WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
WAS plays at ATL. ATL is a 7 point favorite. The O/U line is 200. The predicted winner is ATL. ATL will cover the 7 point spread. The total points will be less than 200.
If it says SPLIT, the algorithms disagreed, so there's no prediction. Underdog is N/A when an underdog was not predicted to win.
WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
CLE at DET -2.5, 190
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: CLE
TOR at MIA -2.5, 188.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
DAL at HOU -3, 190
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
PHI -3.5 at MIN, 189
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at NO -13.5, 197
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
LAC -1 at OKC, 187.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
DEN at SAS -1, 181
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN +1
OU: OVER
Underdog: DEN
MIL at UTA -10.5, 190
Winner: UTA
Spread: MIL +10.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
CHI at POR -6.5, 195
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Kind of a disappointing first day. Oh well.
How to read predictions:
WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
WAS plays at ATL. ATL is a 7 point favorite. The O/U line is 200. The predicted winner is ATL. ATL will cover the 7 point spread. The total points will be less than 200.
If it says SPLIT, the algorithms disagreed, so there's no prediction. Underdog is N/A when an underdog was not predicted to win.
WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
CLE at DET -2.5, 190
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: CLE
TOR at MIA -2.5, 188.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
DAL at HOU -3, 190
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
PHI -3.5 at MIN, 189
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
SAC at NO -13.5, 197
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
LAC -1 at OKC, 187.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A
DEN at SAS -1, 181
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN +1
OU: OVER
Underdog: DEN
MIL at UTA -10.5, 190
Winner: UTA
Spread: MIL +10.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A
CHI at POR -6.5, 195
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A
Kind of a disappointing first day. Oh well.
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| SPREAD | 2 | 5 | 40.0% |
| O/U | 3 | 6 | 50.0% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
2008-09 Season Has Begun
I've been tracking picks since the beginning of the season and they are looking awesome. Since I haven't been posting, you'll have to take my word for it. From now on I'll try to keep up with it daily, though with my schedule I can't guarantee it. There will also be weekly power rankings, complete with numerical ratings, starting today. You can find them on the right side of the blog.
There are several different top secret equations that work in conjunction to make the picks which means I won't have a pick up for every game. (though I will have a huge number of picks posted.) I've also started tracking a pretty sexy metric: Win percentage when picking the underdog. Now you'll know which underdogs to pick straight up to make the big bucks. One more thing, the O/U picks are finally working, for now, at least.
From 11/1 thru 11/18:
You read that right. 79% picking the winner, 66.7% ATS, 66.7% O/U, and 81% correct picking the underdog.
There are several different top secret equations that work in conjunction to make the picks which means I won't have a pick up for every game. (though I will have a huge number of picks posted.) I've also started tracking a pretty sexy metric: Win percentage when picking the underdog. Now you'll know which underdogs to pick straight up to make the big bucks. One more thing, the O/U picks are finally working, for now, at least.
From 11/1 thru 11/18:
| Correct | Games | Win% | |
| WINS | 83 | 105 | 79.0% |
| SPREAD | 46 | 69 | 66.7% |
| O/U | 44 | 66 | 66.7% |
| UNDERDOG WIN | 17 | 21 | 81.0% |
You read that right. 79% picking the winner, 66.7% ATS, 66.7% O/U, and 81% correct picking the underdog.
Sunday, 2 November 2008
NBA '08-'09 Season
Hey Everybody,
The season is underway, so it's time for NBA Black Box to follow suit. By nature, predictions based on statistics become more accurate as more data becomes available. This means that it will take some time before the picks are accurate enough to post. I look at the process as 3 stages.
1) Allow enough statistics to become available for accurate predictions.
2) Track the predictions for a suitable amount of time to ensure that the trend has begun.
3) Start posting 'em.
Since the season is 1 week old, we're still in the 1st stage. I've got no clue how long it will take before we make it to stage 3, but I'm guessing it won't be for another month. Keep checking back periodically to catch when it starts up. Or, send your email address to blackboxsports@gmail.com and I'll notify you when the predictions begin.
Either way, head over to nflblackbox.blogspot.com to check out NFLSim, the play-by-play NFL simulator predicting the winners, spread, and over/under for every game. Magical things are happening, don't miss out.
The season is underway, so it's time for NBA Black Box to follow suit. By nature, predictions based on statistics become more accurate as more data becomes available. This means that it will take some time before the picks are accurate enough to post. I look at the process as 3 stages.
1) Allow enough statistics to become available for accurate predictions.
2) Track the predictions for a suitable amount of time to ensure that the trend has begun.
3) Start posting 'em.
Since the season is 1 week old, we're still in the 1st stage. I've got no clue how long it will take before we make it to stage 3, but I'm guessing it won't be for another month. Keep checking back periodically to catch when it starts up. Or, send your email address to blackboxsports@gmail.com and I'll notify you when the predictions begin.
Either way, head over to nflblackbox.blogspot.com to check out NFLSim, the play-by-play NFL simulator predicting the winners, spread, and over/under for every game. Magical things are happening, don't miss out.
Sunday, 11 May 2008
All Great Things Must Come to an End (in this case, just a break)
Ladies and gentlemen, the 2008 NBA season is coming to an end. I've decided to call it quits for this season.
BUT, I WILL be back next season.
AND, I'll be starting from the beginning of the season. (after the stats have 'matured', i.e. when they produce consistent favorable results) A return of 12.4% over the past 70 days is a daily return of 0.17%. That doesn't sound like a lot, but over 200 days, it compounds into a total of 39.7%! Ah, the magic of compounding interest.
IN ADDITION, this Summer, I will make every possible effort to figure out the NBA Over/Under, and I will succeed. (cause that's the kind of guy I am)
FURTHERMORE, I will figure out baseball and when I do, the picks will be available at MLB Black Box, mlbblackbox.blogspot.com.
If you'd like to be notified of any updates or reminded when any season starts- NBA, MLB, NFL, etc., drop me an email and let me know what notifications you'd like. I'll say it again, your email will never be shared with anyone. I'm not doing this for the money- the picks are free; note the lack of advertisements.
IF I EVER decide to do it for the money by selling my picks, the loyal viewers of nbablackbox.blogspot.com and nflblackbox.blogspot.com will receive free picks, a free subscription, free something. I'm a nice guy, I'll take care of you. Send me an email letting me know you're a superfan. Again, same deal with the email privacy.
I'll say it again, good luck everyone and don't be greedy!
BUT, I WILL be back next season.
AND, I'll be starting from the beginning of the season. (after the stats have 'matured', i.e. when they produce consistent favorable results) A return of 12.4% over the past 70 days is a daily return of 0.17%. That doesn't sound like a lot, but over 200 days, it compounds into a total of 39.7%! Ah, the magic of compounding interest.
IN ADDITION, this Summer, I will make every possible effort to figure out the NBA Over/Under, and I will succeed. (cause that's the kind of guy I am)
FURTHERMORE, I will figure out baseball and when I do, the picks will be available at MLB Black Box, mlbblackbox.blogspot.com.
If you'd like to be notified of any updates or reminded when any season starts- NBA, MLB, NFL, etc., drop me an email and let me know what notifications you'd like. I'll say it again, your email will never be shared with anyone. I'm not doing this for the money- the picks are free; note the lack of advertisements.
IF I EVER decide to do it for the money by selling my picks, the loyal viewers of nbablackbox.blogspot.com and nflblackbox.blogspot.com will receive free picks, a free subscription, free something. I'm a nice guy, I'll take care of you. Send me an email letting me know you're a superfan. Again, same deal with the email privacy.
I'll say it again, good luck everyone and don't be greedy!
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 3, Results
| WINS | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| SPREAD | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 0 | 3 | 0.0% |
DET at ORL -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +4.5
NO at SAS -6.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: NO +6.5
LAL at UTA -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAL +5 Tie
BOS at CLE -2
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS +2
Saturday, 10 May 2008
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 2, Results
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 3 | 3 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 1 | 3 | 33.3% |
ORL at DET -6.5
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA +7
Wednesday, 7 May 2008
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 3, Picks
I may forget to post a game at some point. These overlapping rounds are a pain in the ass, plus I'm in the middle of finals, which doesn't help.
DET at ORL -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +4.5
NO at SAS -6.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: NO +6.5
LAL at UTA -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAL +5
BOS at CLE -2
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS +2
DET at ORL -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +4.5
NO at SAS -6.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: NO +6.5
LAL at UTA -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAL +5
BOS at CLE -2
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS +2
Monday, 5 May 2008
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 2, Picks
ORL at DET -6.5
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA +7
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA +7
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 1, Results
| WINS | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 1 | 4 | 25.0% |
ORL at DET -6.5
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO-3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA+7
CLE at BOS -9.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -9.5
Playoffs, Round 1, Game 7, Results
| WINS | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| SPREAD | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15
Saturday, 3 May 2008
Playoffs, Round 2, Game 1, Picks
ORL at DET -6.5
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO-3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA+7
Winner: DET
Spread: ORL +6.5
SAS at NO -3
Winner: NO
Spread: NO-3
UTA at LAL -7
Winner: LAL
Spread: UTA+7
Playoffs, Round 1, Game 6, Results
| WINS | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| SPREAD | ||
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| 3 | 4 | 75.0% |
DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5
CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4
BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8
HOU at UTA -7.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -7.5
Thursday, 1 May 2008
Playoffs, Round 1, Game 6, Picks
DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5
CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4
BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8
HOU at UTA -7.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -7.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5
CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4
BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8
HOU at UTA -7.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -7.5
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
