3/16 Picks and News

I spent a lot of time working on the NBA predictions last weekend and I made some vast improvements to the various programs and databases I use. Now, I can make changes to the model and instantaneously see the resulting back-tested record. For example, using full-season stats, I was able to improve 5-Star pick accuracy from 57.7% to 62.4% over the time period 1/1/09 - 3/15/09. That's an improvement of 4.7 % points. Meanwhile, after back-testing 11/1/08-12/31/08, using stats up to 12/31/08, accuracy went from 66.5% (actual accuracy as the season progressed was 67.0%) to 72.1%, +5.6%.

These results are very promising, and, in the case of the '08 months, completely shocking. Granted, collective stats were used for the back-testing, but this still shows that there is potential for greater upside. These changes will be implemented immediately, including tonight's games.

On a separate note, March Madness is here! I have a similar model that fills out the bracket for me, and it has been very successful over the past 3 years. Last year it predicted the final four, finals, and champion. I'm posting the bracket tomorrow. You're free to use it as long as you're not in one of my pools. Use it as a your bracket, use it as a guide, or don't use it at all, whatever.

TOR at CHA -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +7.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at NO -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
POR -6 at MEM
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A
SAS -5.5 at OKC
Winner:	SAS
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at DEN -13
Winner:	DEN
Spread:	NJ +13 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	1	2	50.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	1	3	33.3%

3/15 Picks

BOS -6.5 at MIL
Winner:	BOS
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at DET -8.5
Winner:	DET
Underdog:	N/A
MIA at PHI -7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIA +7.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
POR at ATL -4
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR +4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
IND at TOR -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at LAL -8.5
Winner:	LAL
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at CLE -10
Winner:	CLE
Underdog:	N/A
SAC at WAS -2
Winner:	WAS
Spread:	WAS -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at ORL -5.5
Winner:	ORL
Underdog:	N/A
NJ -2 at LAC
Winner:	NJ
Spread:	NJ -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at GS -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	4	7	57.1%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	0	4	0.0%

3/14 Picks

UTA -2 at MIA
Winner:	Utah
Underdog:	N/A
CHA -5 at MIN
Winner:	Charlotte
Underdog:	N/A
NO -2 at CHI
Winner:	New Orleans
Underdog:	N/A
SAS at HOU -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS +2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
LAC at DEN -12.5
Winner:	Denver
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at PHX -8
Winner:	Phoenix
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	2	5	40.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	1	1	100.0%

3/13 Picks

CHI at PHI -3.5
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	PHI -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DET -1.5 at TOR
Winner:	Detroit
Underdog:	N/A
HOU -1.5 at CHA
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -8 at WAS
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -8 *****
Underdog:	N/A
IND at ATL -5.5
Winner:	Atlanta
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at BOS -12.5
Winner:	Boston
Underdog:	N/A
NYK -5.5 at MIN
Winner:	New York
Underdog:	N/A
NO -5 at MIL
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -10.5 at SAC
Winner:	Cleveland
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at POR -7
Winner:	Portland
Underdog:	N/A
DAL -1.5 at GS
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	9	9	100.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	3	---
*****	2	3	66.7%

3/12 Picks

Spring Break is finally here. No picks today. Picks will continue on Friday.

3/11 Picks

CHI at ORL -8
Winner:	Orlando
Underdog:	N/A
NO -7.5 at WAS
Winner:	New Orleans
Underdog:	N/A
TOR at PHI -6.5
Winner:	Philadelphia
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at ATL -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	UTA +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
BOS at MIA -3.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at DET -6.5
Winner:	Detroit
Underdog:	N/A
MEM -2.5 at MIN
Winner:	Minnesota
Spread:	MIN +2.5 *****
Underdog:	Minnesota
LAL at HOU -3.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL +3.5 *****
Underdog:	LA Lakers
OKC at DEN -13.5
Winner:	Denver
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at POR -8
Winner:	Portland
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at GS -3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NJ +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A

3/10 Picks

FULL SEASON:

UTA -3.5 at IND
Winner:	Utah
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at MIL -3.5
Winner:	Milwaukee
Spread:	MIL -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at SAS -5
Winner:	San Antonio
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at PHX -6.5
Winner:	Phoenix
Spread:	DAL +6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at SAC -3
Winner:	Oklahoma City
Spread:	OKC +3 *****
Underdog:	Oklahoma City
CLE -11 at LAC
Winner:	Cleveland
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	4	6	66.7%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	2	3	66.7%
*****	1	1	100.0%

And, in case you're curious, 30 DAYS:

UTA -3.5 at IND
Winner:	Utah
Spread:	UTA -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at MIL -3.5
Winner:	Milwaukee
Spread:	MIL -3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at SAS -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DAL at PHX -6.5
Winner:	Phoenix
Spread:	PHX -6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at SAC -3
Winner:	Oklahoma City
Spread:	OKC +3 *****
Underdog:	Oklahoma City
CLE -11 at LAC
Winner:	Cleveland
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	3	5	60.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	2	5	40.0%
*****	1	1	100.0%

3/9 Picks

Good news everyone, I spent all day Sunday writing the code to get the custom stats I need. It took many hours, but now I have the ability to run the algorithms using any range of stats, beginning on any day. I just started backtesting the algorithms using a 30-day moving range of stats, starting January 2, when things fell off the cliff. I chose 30 days because over the approximately 60 days from November to December, when accuracy was at 67%, the average range was 30 days. If there are any stats guys that have a better suggestion, speak up.

NO -1.5 at ATL
Winner:	New Orleans
Underdog:	N/A
CHI at MIA -5
Winner:	Miami
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -2 at DET
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at MIN -4
Winner:	Minnesota
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at DEN -4.5
Winner:	Denver
Underdog:	N/A
LAL -3 at POR
Winner:	LA Lakers
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	1	6	16.7%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	0	1	0.0%

FYI, using previous 30 days, the resuts were:

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	1	4	25.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	2	3	66.7%
*****	1	1	100.0%

3/8 Picks

UTA -4.5 at TOR
Winner:	Utah
Underdog:	N/A
ORL at BOS -4
Winner:	Boston
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at SAS -4.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at NJ -4.5
Winner:	New Jersey
Spread:	NYK +4.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at HOU -13
Winner:	Houston
Underdog:	N/A
PHI -5 at OKC
Winner:	Philadelphia
Underdog:	N/A
DEN -9 at SAC
Winner:	Denver
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	3	7	42.9%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	0	1	0.0%

3/7 Picks

DET at ATL -2
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at NYK -3.5
Winner:	New York
Spread:	CHA +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIA at CLE -9
Winner:	Cleveland
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at NO -13
Winner:	New Orleans
Underdog:	N/A
PHI -5.5 at MEM
Winner:	Philadelphia
Underdog:	N/A
GS at MIL -8
Winner:	Milwaukee
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at DAL -12
Winner:	Dallas
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at POR -13.5
Winner:	Portland
Underdog:	N/A
IND -4.5 at LAC
Winner:	Indiana
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	8	9	88.9%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	2	2	100.0%

3/6 Picks

ATL at CHA -2.5
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	Atlanta
MIA -1.5 at TOR
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at ORL -9.5
Winner:	Orlando
Underdog:	N/A
CLE at BOS -1.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
GS at DET -9
Winner:	Detroit
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at CHI -6.5
Winner:	Chicago
Spread:	MIL +6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at HOU -5.5
Winner:	Houston
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at SAS -13.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at UTA -9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN +9 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at LAL -15.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	7	8	87.5%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%
*****	2	4	50.0%

3/5 Picks

DAL at NO -6
Winner:	New Orleans
Underdog:	N/A
POR at DEN -7
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	POR +7 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	2	2	100.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	0	1	0.0%

This Season's Results

Overall, this season has gone very well, but there have certainly been some mixed results. Here are the long overdue monthly and overall stats.

OVERALL	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	522	706	73.9%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	39	74	52.7%
*****	209	355	58.9%

NOVEMBER	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	136	173	78.6%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	23	31	74.2%
*****	63	96	65.6%
DECEMBER	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	132	169	78.1%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	5	11	45.5%
*****	57	83	68.7%
JANUARY	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	135	198	68.2%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	6	16	37.5%
*****	46	95	48.4%
FEBRUARY	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	109	152	71.7%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	4	13	30.8%
*****	38	71	53.5%

The season got off to a great start with +65% accuracy against the spread, ***** picks, for each of the first 2 months. Accuracy declined in January, dropping to 48.4%, but began to recover in February, reaching a profitable 53.5% by month's end. Overall, NBA Black Box is still an impressive 58.9% over 355 games.

If you've got an explanation for the irrational monthly performance, I'd love to hear it.

3/4 Picks

MIL at CLE -13
Winner:	Cleveland
Underdog:	N/A
ATL at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A
BOS -7.5 at NJ
Winner:	Boston
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at MIA -3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHX +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at OKC -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	WAS +4.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
GS at CHI -7.5
Winner:	Chicago
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at UTA -8.5
Winner:	Utah
Spread:	HOU +8.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
SAS at DAL -3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
IND at POR -10
Winner:	Portland
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at LAC -2
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	5	5	100.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%
*****	1	4	25.0%

3/3 Picks

CHI at CHA -2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at ORL -7
Winner:	Orlando
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at DET -3
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN +3 *****
Underdog:	Denver
GS at MIN
Winner:	Minnesota
Spread:	MIN *****
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at MIL -4
Winner:	Milwaukee
Spread:	MIL -4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
TOR at HOU -9
Winner:	Houston
Underdog:	N/A
IND -2.5 at SAC
Winner:	Indiana
Spread:	IND -2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at LAL -15
Winner:	LA Lakers
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	4	7	57.1%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%
*****	1	5	20.0%

3/2 Picks

ATL -4 at WAS
Winner:	Atlanta
Underdog:	N/A
NO at PHI -2
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	NO +2 *****
Underdog:	New Orleans
CLE -4 at MIA
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DAL -6 at OKC
Winner:	Dallas
Underdog:	N/A
SAS -8 at LAC
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -8 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	4	5	80.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	1	1	100.0%
*****	3	3	100.0%