12/16

CHI -2 at CHA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI -2
Underdog:	N/A
NO -6.5 at MEM
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	NO -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
LAC -4.5 at OKC
Winner:	LA Clippers
Spread:	LAC -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at HOU -3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
SAC at POR -12.5
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	POR -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at LAL -13
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL-13
Underdog:	N/A

Only 1 ***** today...

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	3	6	50.0%
*****	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/15 Picks

NJ at TOR -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
IND at WAS -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at ATL -8.5
Winner:	Atlanta
Spread:	ATL -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at MIA -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at BOS -9
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -9
Underdog:	N/A
DEN at DAL -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at PHX -8.5
Winner:	Phoenix
Spread:	PHX -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at SAC -4
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC -4
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -2 at GS
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	5	8	62.5%
*****	4	4	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Today's 5-Star Parlay paid 14 to 1. That brings this unbelievable 10-day streak to 24-5 (82.8%), +1850 units.

Last Week's Results

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	30	39	76.9%
SPREAD	27	50	54.0%
*****	16	21	76.2%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

Good week.

At $100/unit, 5-Star picks up $1050.

Power Rankings, 12/14

Lots of movement in the rankings this week. Most notably, the Lakers dropped 2 spots from 1st to 3rd, below Cleveland and Boston. This is the first time they're not on top. The drop was a result of both the Lakers' poor play and improvements in Cleveland and Boston's games. New York shot up 10 spots on the heels of some impressive wins at New Jersey and Sacramento. Meanwhile, the Spurs continue to crawl up the ladder to 8 from 13. The Spurs have risen 14 spots in the past 5 weeks. OKC is still at the bottom, though the gap between 29 and 30 is shrinking; one good week and they might jump all the way to 29.

12/14 Picks

Sorry for the late start this morning, the semester just ended. I don't have to spell it out for you. But it's alright, the NO-TOR game wasn't a 5-Star game.

MIA -1.5 at MEM
Winner:	Miami
Spread:	MIA -1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at SAS -16.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -16.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at LAL -15.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -15.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	3	100.0%
SPREAD	1	3	33.3%
*****	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/13 Picks

***** Picks: 6-0. Yesterday's 5-Star Parlay payed off 50 to 1. That brings the 5-Star record to 16-3, or 84.2% over the past 7 days. Actually, there were 2 other perfect 5-Star days in that period (both 3-0). If you bet $100/unit, you're up $1270. If you throw a dart to make your picks, the chances of you hitting 16 out of 19 is 0.18%. Ok, enough of that.

I've got a final from 2-5 pm, central. After a day like yesterday, I can't skip today. If picks aren't up by 2, check back before the games start.

Some close ones: If the SAC line moves to 0.5, it's no longer *****, but NYK +.5
If DET moves to 2.5, it's not *****, but DET -2.5

CLE -4.5 at ATL
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -4.5
Underdog:	N/A
DET -2 at CHA
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	DET -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at PHI -5.5
Winner:	Philadelphia
Spread:	PHI -5.5
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at CHI -4
Winner:	Chicago
Spread:	CHI -4
Underdog:	N/A
IND at MIL -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +4.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
OKC at DAL -12.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
ORL at UTA -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL +5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
GS at DEN -15.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -15.5
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at SAC -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +1.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
HOU -4 at LAC
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -4
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	5	7	71.4%
SPREAD	6	10	60.0%
*****	3	4	75.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/12 Picks

Today seems like a good day to start posting the O/U. It didn't work last season, but for some reason it's pretty accurate now. Maybe I gave up on it too soon last year. So far, unanimous picks are 98-66 (59.8%). I guess that's good enough to post. Don't mind the formatting, I put in the O/U as an afterthought so it didn't fit the right way. I'll change the format tomorrow because I don't feel like re-doing the table now. Pretty easy to figure out, ATL at MIA is 192.5, the pick is OVER.

Which reminds me, my final final is tomorrow, so I can't guarantee picks.

ATL at MIA -2.5	192.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
PHI at CLE -10.5	189.5
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -10.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
TOR at NJ -3	205
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	UNDER
CHI -2 at MEM	199.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI -2
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	UNDER
SAS -8.5 at MIN	192.5
Winner:	San Antonio
Spread:	SAS -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
NO at BOS -6.5	188.5
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -6.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
IND at DET -7	200
Winner:	Detroit
Spread:	IND +7 ****
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
ORL at PHX -1.5	209.5
Winner:	Orlando
Spread:	ORL +1.5 *****
Underdog:	Orlando
O/U:	SPLIT
LAC at POR -8.5	189
Winner:	Portland
Spread:	POR -8.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	OVER
SAC at LAL -16.5	215
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -16.5
Underdog:	N/A
O/U:	SPLIT
HOU -1.5 at GS	215
Winner:	Houston
Spread:	HOU -1.5 *****
Underdog: O/U:	N/A UNDER

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	8	11	72.7%
*****	6	6	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%
O/U	3	7	42.9%

12/11 Picks & Other Things as Well

Hey loyal Black Boxers, I'd like to ask two favors. I take the time every morning to run the program and post the picks, then every night I post the results. Since I'm commiting this time, I'd like to know if I'm helping people out. If I am helping, then I'll be happy to continue to habitually post these picks. So, please take a second to email me at blackboxsports@gmail.com or just post a comment at the bottom of the post. It doesn't have to be long, maybe just "I'm up $x" or "You ruined me, asshole." I'd also love to here some suggestions and I'll be glad to implement them wherever possible.

Second, please tell all of your friends about NBA Black Box, and NFL Black Box, for that matter. If you've got a website of your own, let's trade links. If you go to forums, make mention of it. Traffic to NBA Black Box is up over 100% from a month ago, thanks to all of you. But, I think we can do better. Everyone deserves to benefit from Black Box Sports.

One more thing: the URL www.blackboxsports.com is already taken, which is very disappointing because Black Box Sports is an awesome name and it perfectly describes this operation. I'd like to get a website of my own, so the time to change names is drawing near. Therefore, I'll be holding a competition to decide on a new name. The winner gets a sweet prize which will totally be worth the minimal effort it takes to think of a name and email to me. The guidelines are as follows: 1) The name has to allude to some sort of computer/programming/science-y/simulation/mathematics subject. For example, a black box is a system where one enters input information into a program and receives an output without being able to see the calculations that transformed the data. That's what NFL and NBA Black Box are. 2) The name must have an available URL and not already be in use. 3) Most importantly, it has to be sexy.

That's all I have to say for now. Thanks!

Jonathan

BOS -10.5 at WAS
Winner:	Boston
Spread:	BOS -10.5
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at DAL -13.5
Winner:	Dallas
Spread:	DAL -13.5
Underdog:	N/A
POR at UTA -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR +2.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	1	3	33.3%
*****	0	0	---
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/10 Picks

IND at TOR -3
Winner:	Toronto
Spread:	TOR -3 *****
Underdog:	N/A
NYK at NJ -8.5
Winner:	New Jersey
Spread:	NYK +8.5
Underdog:	N/A
CLE -7 at PHI
Winner:	Cleveland
Spread:	CLE -7
Underdog:	N/A
MEM -2 at OKC
Winner:	Memphis
Spread:	MEM -2 *****
Underdog:	N/A
CHA at NO -13
Winner:	New Orleans
Spread:	CHA +13
Underdog:	N/A
ATL at SAS -6.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at DEN -12.5
Winner:	Denver
Spread:	DEN -12.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at GS -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +2.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at LAL -12.5
Winner:	LA Lakers
Spread:	LAL -12.5
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	7	85.7%
SPREAD	5	9	55.6%
*****	3	4	75.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/9 Picks

DET-5.5 at WAS
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5
Underdog: N/A

TOR at CLE -12
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -12 *****
Underdog: N/A

UTA -5 at MIN
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -5
Underdog: N/A

ATL at HOU -4.5
Winner: HOU
Spread: ATL +4.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CHI -7.5
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -7.5
Underdog: N/A

SAS -1.5 at DAL
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DAL +1.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIL at PHX -6
Winner: PHX
Spread: MIL +6
Underdog: N/A

ORL at POR -5
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -13 at SAC
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -13
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	5	8	62.5%
SPREAD	1	9	11.1%
*****	1	3	33.3%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/8 Picks

CHA at MIA -8
Winner: MIA
Spread: CHA +8 *****
Underdog: N/A

GS -1 at OKC
Winner: GS
Spread: GS -1 *****
Underdog: N/A

HOU -8 at MEM
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -8
Underdog: N/A

ORL -3.5 at LAC
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -3.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	4	75.0%
SPREAD	3	4	75.0%
*****	3	3	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Last Week's Results, Power Rankings

No big changes in rankings this week. Toronto crashed down 6 spots. The Lakers are still at the top, but their lead over Cleveland and Boston is quickly diminishing.

Last week's results:

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	31	37	83.8%
SPREAD	24	49	49.0%
*****	7	14	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	4	50.0%

Mediocre week ATS, but 31-6 picking the winner, not bad.

12/7 Picks

POR -2.5 at TOR
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -2.5
Underdog: N/A

BOS -7.5 at IND
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -7.5
Underdog: N/A

MIL at LAL -13.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -13.5
Underdog: N/A

Lost all 3 by 1 basket...ouch.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	3	100.0%
SPREAD	0	3	0.0%
*****	0	0	---
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/6 Picks

CLE -8 at CHA
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -8
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHI -2.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NJ +2.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

OKC at MIA -11
Winner: MIA
Spread: MIA -11
Underdog: N/A

LAC at MIN -2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +2 *****
Underdog: N/A

MEM at NO -14.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -14.5
Underdog: N/A

GS at SAS -12
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -12
Underdog: N/A

ATL at DAL -7.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL +7.5 *****
Underdog: N/A

WAS at CHI -8.5
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -8.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at PHX -7.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: UTA +7.5
Underdog: N/A

DEN -5 at SAC
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	7	100.0%
SPREAD	8	10	80.0%
*****	3	3	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

12/5 Picks

OKC at ORL -13
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -13
Underdog: N/A

LAL -11.5 at WAS
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -11.5
Underdog: N/A

NYK at ATL -10.5
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -10.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at CLE -11
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -11
Underdog: N/A

MIN at NJ -6.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NJ -6.5
Underdog: N/A

POR at BOS -8
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8
Underdog: N/A

PHI at DET -8
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -8
Underdog: N/A

LAC -1 at MEM
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC -1
Underdog: N/A

GS at HOU -9.5
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -9.5
Underdog: N/A

CHA at MIL -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +4.5
Underdog: N/A

TOR at UTA -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: TOR +6
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	7	85.7%
SPREAD	4	11	36.4%
*****	0	0	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	0.0%

12/4 Picks

I decided to take a look back at the past 600 games, give or take, to figure out a way to quantify the probabilities of games. Based on the win probabilities of games given differences in my calculated spread and Vegas' spread, with the help of some linear regression, I've come up with a reasonable way to assign probabilities. As of now, it's completely untested. I'll post it, but I've got no idea how well it'll work, so we'll figure it out as we go along. The minimum possible probability is 60% because no difference in predicted and Vegas lines has been less than 60% accurate. Technically a game could get up to 100% but that's extremely unlikely. I'll track it from now on, maybe it'll work perfectly or not at all, who knows...

PHX at DAL -1
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +1, 71% *****
Underdog: PHX

SAS at DEN -4
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4, 66%
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	0	1	0.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0.0%
*****	0	2	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

NBA Lines

I've been getting some emails about inconsistencies and possible errors with the lines. I try to get everything through the formulas as soon as I can, using the earliest possible lines. If anyone's got some ideas as to how I can improve this, please post a comment or send me an email.

I'm open to any and all suggestions. Since I'm doing this for free, I've got no reason to try to inflate my record, I'm just trying to help people out. I'm willing to do whatever is necessary to improve the consistency.

Thanks!

12/3 Picks

I never realized how drastically Vegas' lines changed hour-by-hour until yesterday. When I ran the numbers, DAL was a 5.5 point favorite. A few hours later, it was up to 11. If the current line is vastly different from the line I posted, use your judgment as to whether or not you should act on it.

I'm also going to put ***** next to the higher probability picks. Yesterday, I was 4-4 overall, but the higher probability picks were 3-1. It can't hurt to give out a little more info. Leave it up to you guys to decide what sort of risk you're willing to take. For an idea of the difference in accuracy, the regular picks hit 60.4% over 212 games over the past month. ***** picks went 66% over 94 games. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

MEM at ATL -9
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -9
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at WAS
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -7 at PHI
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7
Underdog: N/A

MIN at ORL -9
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -9
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CLE -14.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -14.5
Underdog: N/A

OKC at CHA -8.5
Winner: CHA
Spread: CHA -8.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at BOS -12.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at MIL -3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3 *****
Underdog: N/A

PHX at NO -5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +5 *****
Underdog: PHX

LAC at HOU -3
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIA at UTA -3
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	6	11	54.5%
*****	1	4	25.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

12/2 Picks

LAL -8.5 at IND
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8.5
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NJ -5.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -5.5
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at NYK
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at CHI -3
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -3
Underdog:

LAC at DAL -11
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -11
Underdog: N/A

DET at SAS -4
Winner: DET
Spread: DET +4
Underdog: DET

TOR at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAC -2
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +2
Underdog: UTA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	4	8	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

12/1 Picks

MIN at CHA -3.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -3.5
Underdog: N/A

ORL at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA -2 at GS
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA -2
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	2	3	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---