12/13 Picks

Overtime. Why'd it have to be overtime? Nothing good ever comes from overtime.

But I can't complain about hitting 16-4 (80.0%) ATS *****. 80% (ROI of 58%). That's the same accuracy as the ***** straight up picks.

HOU -1.5 at TOR, 203.5
HOU	109.2
TOR	106.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU -1.5
O/U:	OVER *****
NJ at ATL -12.5, 198.5
NJ	89.4
ATL	107.9
Winner:	ATL *****
Spread:	ATL -12.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER
MEM at MIA -7, 199
MEM	97.3
MIA	100.6
Winner:	MIA *****
Spread:	MEM +7
O/U:	UNDER
CLE -3.5 at OKC, 191
CLE	98.5
OKC	96.2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	OKC +3.5
O/U:	OVER *****
SAS -6 at LAC, 187
SAS	102.2
LAC	92.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS -6
O/U:	OVER *****

COMBINED
13-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	0	0	---
ATS - non *****	2	4	50.0%
O/U - non *****	0	2	0.0%
SU *****	1	2	50.0%
ATS *****	1	1	100.0%
O/U *****	1	2	50.0%
SU Overall	1	2	50.0%
ATS Overall	3	5	60.0%
O/U Overall	1	4	25.0%

12/12 Picks

Man, too bad I put those last games up :(

A couple really close game last night. GS/CHI went into overtime and GS lost by 1 point too many. The model got pretty close to a few games as well.

Great night for ***** picks, 3-0 ATS, 4-3 O/U, 4-1 SU. That brings ***** ATS to 14-4 (78%) since the model was introduced on 12/2.

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IND at WAS -7.5, 207
IND	98.5
WAS	102.7
Winner:	WAS *****
Spread:	IND +7.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER *****
GS at DET -6, 205.5
GS	107.8
DET	106.2
Winner:	DET
Spread:	GS +6
O/U:	OVER
BOS -9.5 at CHI, 186.5
BOS	101.3
CHI	84.3
Winner:	BOS *****
Spread:	BOS -9.5
O/U:	UNDER
CHA at DAL -7, 189
CHA	94.5
DAL	95.1
Winner:	DAL *****
Spread:	CHA +7
O/U:	OVER
POR at MIL -4, 190
POR	99.0
MIL	95.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR +4
O/U:	OVER
PHX at DEN -8.5, 224.5
PHX	116.7
DEN	119.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHX +8.5
O/U:	OVER
LAL at UTA -2, 202
LAL	104.4
UTA	101.4
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	LAL +2
O/U:	OVER *****
MIN at SAC -7.5, 204
MIN	96.1
SAC	110.7
Winner:	SAC *****
Spread:	SAC -7.5 *****
O/U:	OVER

12-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	1	1	100.0%
ATS - non *****	3	6	50.0%
O/U - non *****	4	6	66.7%
SU *****	3	4	75.0%
ATS *****	2	2	100.0%
O/U *****	0	2	0.0%
SU Overall	4	5	80.0%
ATS Overall	5	8	62.5%
O/U Overall	4	8	50.0%

12/11 Picks

If you saw this before 5:30, only 9 games were up. Now there are 11.

NJ at IND -3.5, 198.5
NJ	91.6
IND	96.6
Winner:	IND *****
Spread:	IND -3.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER *****
HOU -2.5 at PHI, 193.5
HOU	104.8
PHI	94.3
Winner:	HOU *****
Spread:	HOU -2.5
O/U:	OVER
ATL -3.5 at TOR, 209
ATL	115.4
TOR	104.7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL -3.5
O/U:	OVER *****
DAL at MIA -1, 195
DAL	101.4
MIA	93.8
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DAL +1 *****
O/U:	OVER *****
GS at CHI -4.5, 213.5
GS	109.5
CHI	103.2
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	GS +4.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
POR at CLE -10, 187
POR	96.1
CLE	94.3
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	POR +10
O/U:	OVER *****
OKC at MEM -2, 197
OKC	104.5
MEM	94.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	OKC +2 *****
O/U:	OVER
NYK at NO -6.5, 205
NYK	106.3
NO	106.5
Winner:	NO *****
Spread:	NYK +6.5
O/U:	OVER
CHA at SAS -7.5, 188
CHA	94.8
SAS	96.1
Winner:	SAS *****
Spread:	CHA +7.5
O/U:	OVER
MIN at LAL -15.5, 197.5
MIN	90.6
LAL	108.7
Winner:	LAL *****
Spread:	LAL -15.5
O/U:	OVER *****
ORL at PHX -3, 213
ORL	109.8
PHX	111.7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL +3
O/U:	OVER *****

11-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	2	2	100.0%
ATS - non *****	4	7	57.1%
O/U - non *****	2	4	50.0%
SU *****	4	5	80.0%
ATS *****	3	3	100.0%
O/U *****	4	7	57.1%
SU Overall	6	7	85.7%
ATS Overall	7	10	70.0%
O/U Overall	6	11	54.5%

12/10 Picks

Sweetness. 2 +60% ATS nights in a row. How 'bout those ***** ATS breaking 70% - 11-4 (73.3%) - since the model was introduced. You've gotta be able to make money on the moneyline with 81% picks.

Pretty close POR/IND game last night... Vegas had total of 192, I had a total of 192.1 with POR winnng 101-91.1. POR won 102-91 for a total of 193. .

DEN -7 at DET, 198
DEN	111.8
DET	96.2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN -7
O/U:	OVER *****
BOS -7.5 at WAS, 193
BOS	102.9
WAS	93.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	BOS -7.5
O/U:	OVER
ORL -3 at UTA, 203.5
ORL	105.0
UTA	100.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL -3
O/U:	OVER

10-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	0	0	---
ATS - non *****	0	3	0.0%
O/U - non *****	2	2	100.0%
SU *****	0	0	---
ATS *****	0	0	---
O/U *****	1	1	100.0%
SU Overall	0	0	---
ATS Overall	0	3	0.0%
O/U Overall	3	3	100.0%

12/9 Picks

Interesting night last night, a couple really close games against lines and 7 out of 8 underdogs covered their spreads.

I get the sense that successful spread nights and successful o/u nights alternate...

CHI at ATL -10, 196
CHI	90.6
ATL	107.7
Winner:	ATL *****
Spread:	ATL -10 *****
O/U:	OVER *****
POR -4.5 at IND, 192
POR	101.0
IND	91.1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR -4.5
O/U:	OVER
DET at PHI -3.5, 191.5
DET	96.1
PHI	89.9
Winner:	DET *****
Spread:	DET +3.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER
GS -1.5 at NJ, 219
GS	109.7
NJ	102.0
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	GS -1.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
TOR at MIL -3.5, 205
TOR	105.4
MIL	110.2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL -3.5
O/U:	OVER
NO -3 at MIN, 195.5
NO	102.9
MIN	95.4
Winner:	NO *****
Spread:	NO -3
O/U:	OVER
CLE -2 at HOU, 194
CLE	101.6
HOU	98.2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CLE -2
O/U:	OVER *****
SAC at SAS -13, 203
SAC	105.9
SAS	108.4
Winner:	SAS *****
Spread:	SAC +13 *****
O/U:	OVER
UTA at LAL -10.5, 206
UTA	102.2
LAL	103.9
Winner:	LAL *****
Spread:	UTA +10.5
O/U:	OVER

COMBINED
9-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	0	0	---
ATS - non *****	3	6	50.0%
O/U - non *****	4	6	66.7%
SU *****	5	5	100.0%
ATS *****	3	3	100.0%
O/U *****	2	3	66.7%
SU Overall	5	5	100.0%
ATS Overall	6	9	66.7%
O/U Overall	6	9	66.7%

12/8 Picks

O/U is struggling a bit; ATS ***** are doing well, as are all SU picks.

The SAS-UTA game did what was expected last night: the straight up pick beat the models pick (implied by points). A SU pick is when the original 2 models agree on a winner. If the new model agrees with that, it becomes *****.

Check out nflblackbox.blogspot.com lately? NFLSim is on a sick 3 week streak.

It's probably a good idea to hold off on placing bets for now... it might be better to sit back and watch for a few days/weeks to see what happens. But hell, if you think one looks good, I won't stop ya.

DEN -3 at CHA, 202.5
DEN	109.1
CHA	97.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN -3
O/U:	OVER
MIN at TOR -8, 212
MIN	98.5
TOR	109.5
Winner:	TOR *****
Spread:	TOR -8
O/U:	UNDER *****
MIL at BOS -12.5, 191
MIL	96.9
BOS	101.2
Winner:	BOS *****
Spread:	MIL +12.5
O/U:	OVER *****
NJ at CHI -7, 192
NJ	89.3
CHI	90.3
Winner:	CHI *****
Spread:	NJ +7
O/U:	UNDER *****
CLE -7 at MEM, 193
CLE	104.5
MEM	93.7
Winner:	CLE *****
Spread:	CLE -7
O/U:	OVER
SAC at NO -7.5, 211.5
SAC	109.4
NO	105.0
Winner:	NO
Spread:	SAC +7.5 *****
O/U:	OVER
PHX at DAL -3.5, 214.5
PHX	113.8
DAL	107.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHX +3.5
O/U:	OVER
ORL -7.5 at LAC, 193
ORL	104.3
LAC	91.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL -7.5
O/U:	OVER

SAC +7.5 was supposed to be *****. I added the starts after the fact for record keeping purposes.

8-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	1	1	100.0%
ATS - non *****	4	7	57.1%
O/U - non *****	1	5	20.0%
SU *****	2	4	50.0%
ATS *****	1	1	100.0%
O/U *****	1	3	33.3%
SU Overall	3	5	60.0%
ATS Overall	5	8	62.5%
O/U Overall	2	8	25.0%

12/7 Picks

Spread picks weren't so hot last night but O/U went well. Hit all of the *****.

Something interesting to think about: the old models are about 80% correct when picking the winner straight up. The new model is about 60% ATS. On previous nights it has been the case that when a) the old model picks the winner, and b) the new model picks the opposite team to win, given its point predictions. The old model's straight up picks have been correct while the ATS pick has been incorrect.

The model is one week young. This is a learning process, maybe we can find some trends that will improve the accuracy. Tonight, that's the situation with the SAS-UTA game. Let's see what happens!

POR -4.5 at NYK, 203
POR	105.6
NYK	97.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	POR -4.5
O/U:	OVER
GS at OKC -7, 222
GS	108.1
OKC	112.7
Winner:	OKC *****
Spread:	GS +7
O/U:	UNDER
SAS at UTA -1.5, 192.5
SAS	102.8
UTA	101.5
Winner:	UTA
Spread:	SAS +1.5
O/U:	OVER

7-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	1	1	100.0%
ATS - non *****	0	3	0.0%
O/U - non *****	2	3	66.7%
SU *****	1	1	100.0%
ATS *****	0	0	---
O/U *****	0	0	---
SU Overall	2	2	100.0%
ATS Overall	0	3	0.0%
O/U Overall	2	3	66.7%

12/6 Picks

I've been thinking about posting scores. If people are worried about early posts bending the lines, I can't imagine what exact scores will do. I doubt that will be a problem at this point, but the logic is there.

Also, it's only been a couple days so I'd hate to get way too excited way too soon. The model is 19-12 (61.3%) ATS, over 31 games. Combining ATS & O/U is 34-29 (54%) over 63 games. Give it a couple weeks at this performance, then we'll be in business.

NJ at NYK -4.5, 204.5
NJ	96.1
NYK	103.1
Winner:	NYK *****
Spread:	NYK -4.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER *****
CLE -6.5 at MIL, 196
CLE	100.3
MIL	99.0
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +6.5
O/U:	OVER
WAS at DET -2.5, 189.5
WAS	98.3
DET	94.9
Winner:	DET
Spread:	WAS +2.5
O/U:	OVER
MIA -1.5 at SAC, 204.5
MIA	99.0
SAC	105.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +1.5
O/U:	OVER
PHX at LAL -9.5, 221.5
PHX	114.1
LAL	110.0
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	PHX +9.5
O/U:	OVER

6-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	2	2	100.0%
ATS - non *****	0	4	0.0%
O/U - non *****	2	4	50.0%
SU *****	1	1	100.0%
ATS *****	1	1	100.0%
O/U *****	1	1	100.0%
SU Overall	3	3	100.0%
ATS Overall	1	5	20.0%
O/U Overall	3	5	60.0%

12/5 Picks

Everyday can't be stellar, but it was still a pretty good one when you consider totals in addition to sides.

[The model's total for the TOR game was 216.3... the real game went to 216. Damn, off by 0.3 pts.]
[The model's total for the CLE game was 188.6... the real game went to 188. Shoot, off by 0.6 pts.]
[Memphis was off by a few]
[Finally, the model had 194.5 for the BOS game; Vegas had 192.5... the real game went to 192. You won that round, Vegas.]

Other close calls that I didn't post:
NYK-ATL, Model: 221.5; Actual: 221.
MIL-DET, Model: 192; Actual: 191.

In 5 out of 10 games, the model was off by 2.5 points or less. 4 out of 10 games were off by 1 point or less. Nice.
-----
Close lines (These are the model's numerical predictions. If you find a line that's slightly different, you can make your own adjustment to the pick.)
PHI-CHA
Total: 186.1
TOR-CHI
Total: 206.9
UTA-MIN
Total: 196.4
HOU-POR
Side: POR by 3
ORL-GS
Side: ORL by 9
Total: 219.8
(For the ORL-GS game, the model's prediction is ORL 114.4 to 105.4; Vegas's lines imply ORL 115.5 to 106. ha.)

PHI at CHA -6, 186.5
Winner:	CHA *****
Spread:	CHA -6
O/U:	UNDER
TOR at CHI -6, 205.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +6 *****
O/U:	OVER
UTA -7.5 at MIN, 197.5
Winner:	UTA *****
Spread:	UTA -7.5
O/U:	UNDER
DEN at SAS -3.5, 206.5
Winner:	SAS
Spread:	DEN +3.5
O/U:	OVER *****
ATL at DAL -5, 204
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL +5
O/U:	OVER *****
SAC at PHX -11.5, 224.5
Winner:	PHX *****
Spread:	SAC +11.5
O/U:	OVER
HOU at POR -5, 191
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU +5
O/U:	OVER *****
IND at LAC -3, 200.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +3 *****
O/U:	UNDER
ORL -9.5 at GS, 221.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	GS +9.5
O/U:	UNDER *****

5-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	0	1	0.0%
ATS - non *****	5	7	71.4%
O/U - non *****	1	5	20.0%
SU *****	2	3	66.7%
ATS *****	1	2	50.0%
O/U *****	0	4	0.0%
SU Overall	2	4	50.0%
ATS Overall	6	9	66.7%
O/U Overall	1	9	11.1%

12/4 Picks

For those of you concerned about early/late, here's what I found this morning:
6 out of 10 ATS lines actually improved from 9 am to 12:30 pm and actually switched 2 games to *****. 1 got worse, 3 stayed the same.

The jury is still open on early/late posting so please leave a comment somewhere or email me w/ your opinion. Thanks!

Also, have to point out that in my note yesterday, I called HOU by 1.2 pts over GS, total of 222.8; HOU won by 2 pts after a shooting foul with 2 sec's to go for a total of 220. The actual total of the DEN game was 210, the model predicted 209.1 ... nice.

Note: 
- I have TOR losing by 3.4 pts, the line is 3.5. Total of 216.3, line is 215.5
- CLE total of 188.6. Line is 190
- MEM total of 206.5. Line is 206
- BOS win by 4.5, line is 4. Total of 194.5, line is 192.5

That should cover any line changes.

TOR at WAS -3.5, 215.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +3.5
O/U:	OVER
SU Underdog:	---
NYK at ATL -10.5, 216.5
Winner:	ATL *****
Spread:	ATL -10.5 *****
O/U:	OVER
SU Underdog:	---
CHI at CLE -12.5, 190
Winner:	CLE *****
Spread:	CHI +12.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER
SU Underdog:	---
MIL at DET -3.5, 186.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +3.5
O/U:	OVER
SU Underdog:	---
DAL -5.5 at MEM, 206
Winner:	DAL *****
Spread:	DAL -5.5
O/U:	OVER
SU Underdog:	---
CHA -3.5 at NJ, 181
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA -3.5
O/U:	UNDER
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at NO -9, 201
Winner:	NO *****
Spread:	NO -9
O/U:	UNDER
SU Underdog:	---
BOS -4 at OKC, 192.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	BOS -4
O/U:	OVER
SU Underdog:	---
IND at UTA -8, 209.5
Winner:	UTA *****
Spread:	UTA -8 *****
O/U:	UNDER *****
SU Underdog:	---
MIA at LAL -11.5, 199
Winner:	LAL *****
Spread:	MIA +11.5
O/U:	UNDER
SU Underdog:	---

4-Dec	Correct	Games	Win%
SU - non *****	0	0	---
ATS - non *****	3	6	50.0%
O/U - non *****	5	9	55.6%
SU *****	4	6	66.7%
ATS *****	1	3	33.3%
O/U *****	1	1	100.0%
SU Overall	4	6	66.7%
ATS Overall	4	9	44.4%
O/U Overall	6	10	60.0%