March Madness Bracket

These are just straight-up winners, no spread.


Midwest

	ROUND 1		ROUND 2		ROUND 3		ROUND 4		WINNER
1	LOUISVILLE	1	LOUISVILLE	1	LOUISVILLE	1	LOUISVILLE	1	LOUISVILLE
16	TBD	9	SIENA	4	WAKE FOREST	3	KANSAS
8	OHIO ST
9	SIENA
5	UTAH	5	UTAH
12	ARIZONA	4	WAKE FOREST
4	WAKE FOREST
13	CLEVELAND ST
6	W VIRGINIA	6	W VIRGINIA	3	KANSAS
11	DAYTON	3	KANSAS	2	MICHIGAN ST
3	KANSAS
14	N DAKOTA ST
7	BOSTON COLLEGE	10	USC
10	USC	2	MICHIGAN ST
2	MICHIGAN ST
15	ROBERT MORRIS

West

	ROUND 1		ROUND 2		ROUND 3		ROUND 4		WINNER
1	CONN	1	CONN	1	CONN	1	CONN	2	MEMPHIS
16	CHATTENOOGA	8	BYU	5	PURDUE	2	MEMPHIS
8	BYU
9	TEXAS A&M
5	PURDUE	5	PURDUE
12	N IOWA	4	WASHINGTON
4	WASHINGTON
13	MISSISSIPPI ST
6	MARQUETTE	11	UTAH ST	3	MISSOURI
11	UTAH ST	3	MISSOURI	2	MEMPHIS
3	MISSOURI
14	CORNELL
7	CALIFORNIA	7	CALIFORNIA
10	MARYLAND	2	MEMPHIS
2	MEMPHIS
15	CAL ST NORTHRIDGE

East

	ROUND 1		ROUND 2		ROUND 3		ROUND 4		WINNER
1	PITTSBURGH	1	PITTSBURGH	1	PITTSBURGH	1	PITTSBURGH	1	PITTSBURGH
16	E TENNESSEE ST	8	OKLAHOMA ST	4	XAVIER	6	UCLA
8	OKLAHOMA ST
9	TENNESSEE
5	FLORIDA ST	12	WISCONSIN
12	WISCONSIN	4	XAVIER
4	XAVIER
13	PORTLAND ST
6	UCLA	6	UCLA	6	UCLA
11	VCU	3	VILLANOVA	2	DUKE
3	VILLANOVA
14	AMERICAN
7	TEXAS	7	TEXAS
10	MINNESOTA	2	DUKE
2	DUKE
15	BINGHAMTON

South

	ROUND 1		ROUND 2		ROUND 3		ROUND 4		WINNER
1	N CAROLINA	1	N CAROLINA	1	N CAROLINA	4	GONZAGA	4	GONZAGA
16	RADFORD	9	BUTLER	4	GONZAGA	7	CLEMSON
8	LSU
9	BUTLER
5	ILLINOIS	5	ILLINOIS
12	W KENTUCKY	4	GONZAGA
4	GONZAGA
13	AKRON
6	ARIZONA ST	6	ARIZONA ST	6	ARIZONA ST
11	TEMPLE	3	SYRACUSE	7	CLEMSON
3	SYRACUSE
14	SF AUSTIN
7	CLEMSON	7	CLEMSON
10	MICHIGAN	2	OKLAHOMA
2	OKLAHOMA
15	MORGAN ST

Final Four

	SEMI-FINALS		FINALS		CHAMPION
1	LOUISVILLE	2	MEMPHIS	2	MEMPHIS
2	MEMPHIS	4	GONZAGA
1	PITTSBURGH
4	GONZAGA

Final Score:
Memphis 70, Gonzaga 67

Once again, the Longhorn disappointment continues...

3/16 Picks and News

I spent a lot of time working on the NBA predictions last weekend and I made some vast improvements to the various programs and databases I use. Now, I can make changes to the model and instantaneously see the resulting back-tested record. For example, using full-season stats, I was able to improve 5-Star pick accuracy from 57.7% to 62.4% over the time period 1/1/09 - 3/15/09. That's an improvement of 4.7 % points. Meanwhile, after back-testing 11/1/08-12/31/08, using stats up to 12/31/08, accuracy went from 66.5% (actual accuracy as the season progressed was 67.0%) to 72.1%, +5.6%.

These results are very promising, and, in the case of the '08 months, completely shocking. Granted, collective stats were used for the back-testing, but this still shows that there is potential for greater upside. These changes will be implemented immediately, including tonight's games.

On a separate note, March Madness is here! I have a similar model that fills out the bracket for me, and it has been very successful over the past 3 years. Last year it predicted the final four, finals, and champion. I'm posting the bracket tomorrow. You're free to use it as long as you're not in one of my pools. Use it as a your bracket, use it as a guide, or don't use it at all, whatever.

TOR at CHA -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +7.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at NO -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU +3.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
POR -6 at MEM
Winner:	SPLIT
Underdog:	N/A
SAS -5.5 at OKC
Winner:	SAS
Underdog:	N/A
NJ at DEN -13
Winner:	DEN
Spread:	NJ +13 *****
Underdog:	N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
STRAIGHT-UP	1	2	50.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---
*****	1	3	33.3%