Sunday 4 April 2010

NBA & March Madness

UPDATE: The final results from the Sim Capper March Madness Bracket... In my 2 pools, I finished 2 of 30 and 3 of 30... too bad the payout was split 60/40 in the second pool :*(

Hey Folks,

Looks like NBA is done for the regular season. Picks will be up for the playoffs, though.

Interesting Tourney... after an unbelievable first round things kind of fell apart, but the model picked Duke to go to the finals, that's always a good thing.

Questions/Comments?
simcapper@gmail.com

Saturday 20 March 2010

1st Round Round-Up

No perfect bracket this year :( But still a hell of a 1st round. I was hoping to do well, but I wasn't expecting 26-6 (81%). On ESPN, this bracket is ranked 42,921, or 99.1%.

Correct upset picks:

13 Murray St over 4 Vanderbilt
12 Cornell over 5 Temple
11 Old Dominion over 6 Notre Dame
11 Marquette over 6 Washington
10 St. Mary's over 7 Richmond
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson
10 Georgia Tech over 7 Oklahoma St

Only 2 teams knocked out of Sweet 16:

11 San Diego St U
12 Utah St

Most Disappointing Game:

9 Wake Forest over 8 Texas
Wtf, Texas, why do you disappoint me every year. Time to find a new coach. They choked a round earlier than anticipated.

Given the first round losses, the only change to the bracket is 6 Tennessee losing to 2 Ohio St in the Sweet 16. Otherwise, all current winners are still predicted to move on.

Best of luck to all and feel free to share your success/failure stories.


*******

The model had St. Mary's as a marginal favorite but the higher seeded Villanova got the benefit of the doubt :( Trust the model

BTW, St. Mary victory has them beating Baylor and losing to Duke.

Wednesday 17 March 2010

March Madness 2010

It's finally that time of year again. Time to throw productivity out the window for a couple weeks. Using a method similar to the one used for NBA predictions, I've been able to place in the money in pools for 4 out of the past 5 years. Typically, the first few rounds are a little iffy, but after the sweet 16, the points really start to roll in. In 2008, this model nailed all of the teams in the Final 4, the Finals, and it picked the Champ.

Take 'em or leave 'em, here are the picks:

March Madness 2010

Also, here's an interesting article about filling out brackets

3/17 Picks

OKC -2 at CHA, 190.5
CHA by 0.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +2
O/U: OVER *****


IND at CLE -13, 209
CLE by 11.1
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: IND +13
O/U: UNDER *****


NYK at BOS -9.5, 208
BOS by 7.8
Winner: BOS *****
Spread: NYK +9.5
O/U: UNDER *****


SAS at ORL -7.5, 193
ORL by 4.4
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: SAS +7.5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


MIN at UTA -15, 214
UTA by 13.9
Winner: UTA *****
Spread: MIN +15
O/U: UNDER *****


NO at GS -3.5, 229
GS by 4.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: GS -3.5
O/U: UNDER *****


MIL -4.5 at LAC, 192
MIL by 3.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +4.5
O/U: UNDER

Tuesday 16 March 2010

3/16 Picks

CHA -1.5 at IND, 197.5
CHA by 1.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +1.5
O/U: UNDER


CLE -9.5 at DET, 195.5
CLE by 8.6
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: DET +9.5
O/U: UNDER


WAS at DEN -13.5, 210
DEN by 13.8
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: DEN -13.5
O/U: OVER


LAL -6 at SAC, 205.5
LAL by 1.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAC +6
O/U: OVER

Monday 15 March 2010

Been tough to keep up to date lately. I'll do my best to get picks up daily now.

***** March Madness bracket will be posted by tomorrow night at the latest *****


NYK at PHI -3, 209.5
PHI by 1.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NYK +3
O/U: UNDER *****


DET at BOS -9, 195
BOS by 6.6
Winner: BOS *****
Spread: DET +9
O/U: UNDER


DEN -2.5 at HOU, 216
HOU by 2.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU +2.5
O/U: UNDER *****


WAS at UTA -10.5, 204.5
UTA by 11
Winner: UTA *****
Spread: UTA -10.5 *****
O/U: UNDER


LAL -8 at GS, 224
LAL by 0.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: GS +8
O/U: UNDER *****


NO at LAC -2.5, 204.5
NO by 2.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +2.5 *****
O/U: UNDER *****

Wednesday 10 March 2010

3/10 Picks

CHA -1.5 at PHI, 189.5
CHA by 1.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -1.5
O/U: UNDER

UTA -6.5 at DET, 201
UTA by 5.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +6.5
O/U: UNDER *****

DEN -8 at MIN, 216
DEN by 5.2
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: MIN +8
O/U: UNDER *****

NJ at DAL -11.5, 204
DAL by 10.2
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: NJ +11.5
O/U: UNDER *****

NYK at SAS -8.5, 207
SAS by 10.2
Winner: SAS *****
Spread: SAS -8.5 *****
O/U: UNDER *****

TOR -1.5 at SAC, 212.5
SAC by 2.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAC +1.5
O/U: OVER

Tuesday 9 March 2010

3/9 Picks

MIA at CHA -3.5, 185
CHA by 1.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA +3.5
O/U: OVER *****

PHI at IND -1.5, 210
PHI by 0
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: PHI +1.5
O/U: UNDER *****

UTA -3.5 at CHI, 207
UTA by 1.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3.5
O/U: UNDER *****

BOS at MIL -1, 188
MIL by 0.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS +1
O/U: OVER *****

SAC at POR -8, 199
POR by 8.2
Winner: POR *****
Spread: POR -8 *****
O/U: OVER

Monday 8 March 2010

3/8 Picks

ATL -6 at NYK, 210.5
ATL by 0.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NYK +6
O/U: UNDER *****

NJ at MEM -9, 195.5
MEM by 6.6
Winner: MEM *****
Spread: NJ +9
O/U: OVER

DAL -7 at MIN, 207
DAL by 6.9
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: MIN +7
O/U: UNDER *****

GS at NO -7, 214.5
NO by 5.6
Winner: NO *****
Spread: GS +7
O/U: UNDER *****

Friday 5 March 2010

3/5 Picks

LAL -3.5 at CHA, 190.5
LAL by 1.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +3.5
O/U: OVER *****

DET at CLE -12.5, 199
CLE by 9
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: DET +12.5
O/U: UNDER *****

BOS -6 at PHI, 197.5
BOS by 6.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS -6
O/U: UNDER

MIL -4.5 at WAS, 191
WAS by 0.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS +4.5
O/U: OVER

GS at ATL -13, 215
ATL by 12.6
Winner: ATL *****
Spread: GS +13
O/U: UNDER *****

ORL -10 at NJ, 196.5
ORL by 11.5
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: ORL -10
O/U: UNDER

IND at DEN -10.5, 218
DEN by 12.8
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: DEN -10.5 *****
O/U: UNDER *****

NO at SAS -8, 197.5
SAS by 6.2
Winner: SAS *****
Spread: NO +8
O/U: OVER *****

OKC -5 at LAC, 201
OKC by 5.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: OKC -5
O/U: UNDER *****

Wednesday 3 March 2010

3/3 Picks

PHI at ATL -9, 197
ATL by 7.3
Winner: ATL *****
Spread: PHI +9
O/U: OVER *****


GS at ORL -14.5, 214.5
ORL by 12.2
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: GS +14.5
O/U: UNDER *****


CLE -10.5 at NJ, 197
CLE by 13.5
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: CLE -10.5
O/U: UNDER


DET at NYK -3.5, 205
NYK by 3.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +3.5
O/U: UNDER *****


WAS at MIL -10, 193.5
MIL by 7.9
Winner: MIL *****
Spread: WAS +10
O/U: OVER


MIN at DAL -13.5, 201.5
DAL by 9.1
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: MIN +13.5
O/U: OVER


OKC at DEN -6.5, 207
DEN by 6.1
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: OKC +6.5
O/U: OVER *****


IND at POR -9.5, 201.5
POR by 6.1
Winner: POR *****
Spread: IND +9.5
O/U: UNDER


PHX -4 at LAC, 211
PHX by 3.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +4
O/U: UNDER *****

Tuesday 2 March 2010

3/2 Picks

Finally, picks are back up. It's been a pain-in-the-ass combination of technical difficulties regarding stat sources, a need to update the model, and later days at work preventing the afternoon pick updates. Thanks to everyone that's stuck around!


SAC at OKC -10.5, 203
OKC by 9.5
Winner: OKC *****
Spread: SAC +10.5
O/U: UNDER


IND at LAL -12.5, 208.5
LAL by 10.4
Winner: LAL *****
Spread: IND +12.5
O/U: UNDER *****

Friday 26 February 2010

2/26 Picks

NYK at WAS -1.5, 205
WAS by 3.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS -1.5
O/U: UNDER


DAL at ATL -3.5, 195
ATL by 4.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL -3.5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


POR at CHI -3.5, 193
POR by 1.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +3.5 *****
O/U: UNDER


CHA at MEM -3.5, 193.5
MEM by 0.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +3.5
O/U: UNDER


MIN at OKC -10, 201.5
OKC by 9.1
Winner: OKC *****
Spread: MIN +10
O/U: OVER


SAS -3 at HOU, 196
HOU by 1.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU +3
O/U: OVER *****


DET at DEN -10.5, 201
DEN by 11.3
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: DEN -10.5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


LAC at PHX -10, 208
PHX by 8.9
Winner: PHX *****
Spread: LAC +10
O/U: OVER *****


ORL -4.5 at NO, 201
ORL by 3.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +4.5
O/U: UNDER


UTA -7.5 at SAC, 201.5
UTA by 0.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAC +7.5
O/U: OVER


PHI at LAL -11, 197.5
LAL by 7.4
Winner: LAL *****
Spread: PHI +11
O/U: OVER *****

Thursday 25 February 2010

2/25 Picks

MIL -2 at IND, 202.5
IND by 0.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +2
O/U: UNDER *****


CLE -2 at BOS, 192.5
CLE by 0.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS +2 *****
O/U: OVER *****


DEN -6 at GS, 226
GS by 3.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: GS +6
O/U: UNDER *****

Wednesday 24 February 2010

2/24 Picks

MIN at ATL -12, 202
ATL by 12.7
Winner: ATL *****
Spread: ATL -12
O/U: OVER


POR at TOR -3, 198
TOR by 0.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +3
O/U: OVER *****


MEM -1 at WAS, 198.5
MEM by 0.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS +1
O/U: OVER


IND at CHI -8.5, 205.5
CHI by 3.6
Winner: CHI *****
Spread: IND +8.5
O/U: UNDER *****


NO at MIL -6, 193
MIL by 3.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +6
O/U: OVER *****


ORL -4 at HOU, 205
ORL by 0.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU +4
O/U: UNDER *****


OKC at SAS -4, 194
SAS by 2.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: OKC +4
O/U: OVER *****


LAL at DAL -2, 195
LAL by 1.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAL +2
O/U: OVER *****


PHI at PHX -7.5, 210
PHX by 7.1
Winner: PHX *****
Spread: PHI +7.5
O/U: OVER


CHA at UTA -7.5, 192
UTA by 7.8
Winner: UTA *****
Spread: UTA -7.5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


DET at LAC -4, 189.5
DET by 0.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +4 *****
O/U: UNDER

Monday 22 February 2010

2/22 Picks

CHI -2.5 at WAS, 199.5
CHI by 0.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS +2.5
O/U: UNDER


MIL at NYK -1, 208
NYK by 3.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NYK -1
O/U: UNDER *****


IND at DAL -9, 207.5
DAL by 6.3
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: IND +9
O/U: UNDER *****


ATL at UTA -5, 196.5
UTA by 5.5
Winner: UTA *****
Spread: UTA -5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


CHA -3.5 at LAC, 191.5
CHA by 2.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +3.5
O/U: UNDER

Sunday 21 February 2010

Friday 19 February 2010

2/19 Picks

CLE -4.5 at CHA, 191.5
CLE by 3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +4.5
O/U: OVER *****


SAS -3 at PHI, 191.5
SAS by 3.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAS -3
O/U: OVER


DEN -6 at WAS, 209
DEN by 1.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS +6
O/U: UNDER *****


MIL at DET, 189
MIL by 1.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIL
O/U: UNDER


MIA at MEM -6.5, 188.5
MIA by 1.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA +6.5 *****
O/U: OVER *****


CHI -2 at MIN, 205.5
CHI by 4.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI -2
O/U: UNDER *****


TOR -2.5 at NJ, 199
TOR by 7.6
Winner: TOR *****
Spread: TOR -2.5
O/U: OVER


IND at NO -4, 205
NO by 4
Winner: NO *****
Spread: IND +4
O/U: UNDER


DAL at ORL -6.5, 204
ORL by 5.6
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: DAL +6.5
O/U: UNDER


ATL at PHX -4, 212
PHX by 4.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: PHX -4
O/U: OVER


UTA -5 at GS, 220.5
GS by 3.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: GS +5
O/U: UNDER *****


BOS at POR -3, 186
BOS by 1.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS +3
O/U: OVER *****


19-Feb Correct Games Win%
SU - non ***** 0 0 ---
ATS - non ***** 8 11 72.7%
O/U - non ***** 3 5 60.0%



 
SU ***** 2 3 66.7%
ATS ***** 1 1 100.0%
O/U ***** 4 7 57.1%

Thursday 18 February 2010

2/18 Picks

DEN at CLE -6.5, 206
CLE by 6
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: DEN +6.5
O/U: UNDER


BOS at LAL -3, 189
LAL by 2.7
Winner: LAL *****
Spread: BOS +3
O/U: OVER *****


18-Jan Correct Games Win%
SU - non ***** 0 0 ---
ATS - non ***** 2 2 100.0%
O/U - non ***** 0 1 0.0%



 
SU ***** 0 2 0.0%
ATS ***** 0 0 ---
O/U ***** 0 1 0.0%

Wednesday 17 February 2010

2/17 Picks

SAS -5 at IND, 204.5
SAS by 2.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5
O/U: UNDER *****


DET at ORL -11, 192
ORL by 9.4
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: DET +11
O/U: OVER *****


MEM at TOR -7, 217
TOR by 2.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MEM +7 *****
O/U: UNDER *****


MIN at WAS -5, 207
WAS by 4.9
Winner: WAS *****
Spread: MIN +5
O/U: UNDER


MIA -7 at NJ, 188
MIA by 9.7
Winner: MIA *****
Spread: MIA -7
O/U: UNDER


CHI at NYK -2, 201
NYK by 2.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NYK -2
O/U: OVER


HOU at MIL -5.5, 193
MIL by 5.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU +5.5
O/U: OVER *****


UTA -4 at NO, 201.5
UTA by 1.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +4
O/U: UNDER


PHX at DAL -4, 215.5
DAL by 2.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: PHX +4
O/U: UNDER


SAC at GS -4.5, 223.5
GS by 9.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: GS -4.5
O/U: UNDER *****


ATL -6 at LAC, 196.5
ATL by 4.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: LAC +6
O/U: UNDER


17-Jan Correct Games Win%
SU - non ***** 0 0 ---
ATS - non ***** 3 10 30.0%
O/U - non ***** 4 5 80.0%



 
SU ***** 3 3 100.0%
ATS ***** 1 1 100.0%
O/U ***** 4 5 80.0%

Tuesday 16 February 2010

2/16 Picks

NJ at CHA -11, 189
CHA by 11.2
Winner: CHA *****
Spread: CHA -11 *****
O/U: OVER


MIA at PHI -2, 189.5
MIA by 3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA +2
O/U: OVER


MIN at DET -5.5, 197.5
DET by 1.8
Winner: DET *****
Spread: MIN +5.5 *****
O/U: UNDER


NYK at CHI -6.5, 199.5
CHI by 1.6
Winner: CHI *****
Spread: NYK +6.5
O/U: UNDER


PHX at MEM, 220
MEM by 0.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
O/U: UNDER *****


DAL at OKC -4.5, 195
OKC by 1.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DAL +4.5
O/U: OVER *****


UTA -3 at HOU, 201
HOU by 2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU +3 *****
O/U: UNDER


LAC at POR -7, 193.5
POR by 5.2
Winner: POR *****
Spread: LAC +7
O/U: OVER *****


BOS -5.5 at SAC, 199
BOS by 2.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAC +5.5
O/U: OVER


GS at LAL -13, 216
LAL by 13.7
Winner: LAL *****
Spread: LAL -13
O/U: UNDER *****


16-Feb Correct Games Win%
SU - non ***** 0 0 ---
ATS - non ***** 2 6 33.3%
O/U - non ***** 3 6 50.0%



SU ***** 4 5 80.0%
ATS ***** 0 4 0.0%
O/U ***** 3 4 75.0%

Saturday 13 February 2010

All-Star Game prediction

First, check out the awesome new NBA Sim Capper logo up top. Many thanks to Yoshi for his contribution. He made another one over at NFL Sim Capper . Let's give him a round of applause.

This game is a tough one to predict... but I'll go for it anyway.

Western Conference to win by less then 1

East -2 at West, 262.5
Winner: WEST *****
Spread: WEST +2 *****
Not gonna touch the O/U

Friday 12 February 2010

Pre-Allstar Game Power Rankings

Eastern Conference (average rating): 1.00837
Western Conference (average rating): 1.02164

1 Cleveland 1.0631
2 LA Lakers 1.0602
3 Denver 1.0575
4 Orlando 1.0509
5 Phoenix 1.0498
6 Boston 1.0436
7 Atlanta 1.0433
8 Utah 1.0424
9 San Antonio 1.0419
10 Oklahoma City 1.0306
11 Dallas 1.0269
12 Toronto 1.0229
13 Portland 1.0220
14 Houston 1.0159
15 Milwaukee 1.0153
16 Memphis 1.0137
17 Miami 1.0130
18 Golden State 1.0120
19 Charlotte 1.0104
20 New Orleans 1.0079
21 New York 1.0047
22 Philadelphia 1.0014
23 Sacramento 0.9995
24 Chicago 0.9879
25 Indiana 0.9864
26 Washington 0.9864
27 LA Clippers 0.9798
28 Detroit 0.9683
29 Minnesota 0.9644
30 New Jersey 0.9279