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2/6 Picks
| ATL at CHA -1.5 |
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| Winner: | Atlanta |
| Spread: | ATL +1.5 ***** |
| Underdog: | Atlanta |
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| ORL -7 at IND |
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| Winner: | Orlando |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| BOS -6.5 at NYK |
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| Winner: | Boston |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| DEN -7.5 at WAS |
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| Winner: | Denver |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| LAC at MEM -4.5 |
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| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | LAC +4.5 ***** |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| POR -6 at OKC |
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| Winner: | Portland |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| TOR at NO -3 |
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| Winner: | New Orleans |
| Spread: | NO -3 ***** |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| UTA -3 at SAC |
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| Winner: | Utah |
| Spread: | UTA -3 ***** |
| Underdog: | N/A |
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| GS at PHX -10 |
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| Winner: | Phoenix |
| Underdog: | N/A |
| Correct | Games | Win% |
| STRAIGHT-UP | 6 | 8 | 75.0% |
| SU UNDERDOG WIN | 1 | 1 | 100.0% |
| ***** | 4 | 4 | 100.0% |
3 comments:
denver is a play tonight
Jon,
I'm wondering if I'm getting the right value on the money line when I pick a team to win straight up. Can you post what the money line should be for the team to win straight up?
btw... love this site!
Ryan
eric... Good call.
Ryan... Thanks for checking out my site. My algorithms don't assign probabilities to games. Historically, the straight up picks are 74.4%. My betting strategy says that when you divide 1 by the win probability (1/74.4%), you get the break-even odds. In this case, 1.34. In other words, if you make 100 bets with a win % of 75%, you'll win 75 bets. 75 winning bets at the break-even odds of 1.34 pays out $100.5. You bet $100, you won $100, you broke even. Hence, the break-even odds for 75% is 1.34. For the purpose of betting the NBA moneyline, if the payout is at least 1.34, it's a good bet.
If anyone wants to discuss that strategy, speak up.
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