1st Round Round-Up

No perfect bracket this year :( But still a hell of a 1st round. I was hoping to do well, but I wasn't expecting 26-6 (81%). On ESPN, this bracket is ranked 42,921, or 99.1%.

Correct upset picks:

13 Murray St over 4 Vanderbilt
12 Cornell over 5 Temple
11 Old Dominion over 6 Notre Dame
11 Marquette over 6 Washington
10 St. Mary's over 7 Richmond
10 Missouri over 7 Clemson
10 Georgia Tech over 7 Oklahoma St

Only 2 teams knocked out of Sweet 16:

11 San Diego St U
12 Utah St

Most Disappointing Game:

9 Wake Forest over 8 Texas
Wtf, Texas, why do you disappoint me every year. Time to find a new coach. They choked a round earlier than anticipated.

Given the first round losses, the only change to the bracket is 6 Tennessee losing to 2 Ohio St in the Sweet 16. Otherwise, all current winners are still predicted to move on.

Best of luck to all and feel free to share your success/failure stories.


*******

The model had St. Mary's as a marginal favorite but the higher seeded Villanova got the benefit of the doubt :( Trust the model

BTW, St. Mary victory has them beating Baylor and losing to Duke.

March Madness 2010

It's finally that time of year again. Time to throw productivity out the window for a couple weeks. Using a method similar to the one used for NBA predictions, I've been able to place in the money in pools for 4 out of the past 5 years. Typically, the first few rounds are a little iffy, but after the sweet 16, the points really start to roll in. In 2008, this model nailed all of the teams in the Final 4, the Finals, and it picked the Champ.

Take 'em or leave 'em, here are the picks:

March Madness 2010

Also, here's an interesting article about filling out brackets

3/17 Picks

OKC -2 at CHA, 190.5
CHA by 0.3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +2
O/U:	OVER *****
IND at CLE -13, 209
CLE by 11.1
Winner:	CLE *****
Spread:	IND +13
O/U:	UNDER *****
NYK at BOS -9.5, 208
BOS by 7.8
Winner:	BOS *****
Spread:	NYK +9.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
SAS at ORL -7.5, 193
ORL by 4.4
Winner:	ORL *****
Spread:	SAS +7.5 *****
O/U:	OVER *****
MIN at UTA -15, 214
UTA by 13.9
Winner:	UTA *****
Spread:	MIN +15
O/U:	UNDER *****
NO at GS -3.5, 229
GS by 4.7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	GS -3.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
MIL -4.5 at LAC, 192
MIL by 3.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	LAC +4.5
O/U:	UNDER

3/16 Picks

CHA -1.5 at IND, 197.5
CHA by 1.3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	IND +1.5
O/U:	UNDER
CLE -9.5 at DET, 195.5
CLE by 8.6
Winner:	CLE *****
Spread:	DET +9.5
O/U:	UNDER
WAS at DEN -13.5, 210
DEN by 13.8
Winner:	DEN *****
Spread:	DEN -13.5
O/U:	OVER
LAL -6 at SAC, 205.5
LAL by 1.8
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +6
O/U:	OVER

Been tough to keep up to date lately. I'll do my best to get picks up daily now.

***** March Madness bracket will be posted by tomorrow night at the latest *****

NYK at PHI -3, 209.5
PHI by 1.9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +3
O/U:	UNDER *****
DET at BOS -9, 195
BOS by 6.6
Winner:	BOS *****
Spread:	DET +9
O/U:	UNDER
DEN -2.5 at HOU, 216
HOU by 2.1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU +2.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
WAS at UTA -10.5, 204.5
UTA by 11
Winner:	UTA *****
Spread:	UTA -10.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER
LAL -8 at GS, 224
LAL by 0.7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	GS +8
O/U:	UNDER *****
NO at LAC -2.5, 204.5
NO by 2.2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NO +2.5 *****
O/U:	UNDER *****

3/10 Picks

CHA -1.5 at PHI, 189.5
CHA by 1.7
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -1.5
O/U: UNDER

UTA -6.5 at DET, 201
UTA by 5.1
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DET +6.5
O/U: UNDER *****

DEN -8 at MIN, 216
DEN by 5.2
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: MIN +8
O/U: UNDER *****

NJ at DAL -11.5, 204
DAL by 10.2
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: NJ +11.5
O/U: UNDER *****

NYK at SAS -8.5, 207
SAS by 10.2
Winner: SAS *****
Spread: SAS -8.5 *****
O/U: UNDER *****

TOR -1.5 at SAC, 212.5
SAC by 2.9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SAC +1.5
O/U: OVER

3/9 Picks

MIA at CHA -3.5, 185
CHA by 1.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA +3.5
O/U: OVER *****

PHI at IND -1.5, 210
PHI by 0
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: PHI +1.5
O/U: UNDER *****

UTA -3.5 at CHI, 207
UTA by 1.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3.5
O/U: UNDER *****

BOS at MIL -1, 188
MIL by 0.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS +1
O/U: OVER *****

SAC at POR -8, 199
POR by 8.2
Winner: POR *****
Spread: POR -8 *****
O/U: OVER

3/8 Picks

ATL -6 at NYK, 210.5
ATL by 0.6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NYK +6
O/U: UNDER *****

NJ at MEM -9, 195.5
MEM by 6.6
Winner: MEM *****
Spread: NJ +9
O/U: OVER

DAL -7 at MIN, 207
DAL by 6.9
Winner: DAL *****
Spread: MIN +7
O/U: UNDER *****

GS at NO -7, 214.5
NO by 5.6
Winner: NO *****
Spread: GS +7
O/U: UNDER *****

3/5 Picks

LAL -3.5 at CHA, 190.5
LAL by 1.2
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA +3.5
O/U: OVER *****

DET at CLE -12.5, 199
CLE by 9
Winner: CLE *****
Spread: DET +12.5
O/U: UNDER *****

BOS -6 at PHI, 197.5
BOS by 6.3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: BOS -6
O/U: UNDER

MIL -4.5 at WAS, 191
WAS by 0.8
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: WAS +4.5
O/U: OVER

GS at ATL -13, 215
ATL by 12.6
Winner: ATL *****
Spread: GS +13
O/U: UNDER *****

ORL -10 at NJ, 196.5
ORL by 11.5
Winner: ORL *****
Spread: ORL -10
O/U: UNDER

IND at DEN -10.5, 218
DEN by 12.8
Winner: DEN *****
Spread: DEN -10.5 *****
O/U: UNDER *****

NO at SAS -8, 197.5
SAS by 6.2
Winner: SAS *****
Spread: NO +8
O/U: OVER *****

OKC -5 at LAC, 201
OKC by 5.4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: OKC -5
O/U: UNDER *****

3/3 Picks

PHI at ATL -9, 197
ATL by 7.3
Winner:	ATL *****
Spread:	PHI +9
O/U:	OVER *****
GS at ORL -14.5, 214.5
ORL by 12.2
Winner:	ORL *****
Spread:	GS +14.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
CLE -10.5 at NJ, 197
CLE by 13.5
Winner:	CLE *****
Spread:	CLE -10.5
O/U:	UNDER
DET at NYK -3.5, 205
NYK by 3.1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DET +3.5
O/U:	UNDER *****
WAS at MIL -10, 193.5
MIL by 7.9
Winner:	MIL *****
Spread:	WAS +10
O/U:	OVER
MIN at DAL -13.5, 201.5
DAL by 9.1
Winner:	DAL *****
Spread:	MIN +13.5
O/U:	OVER
OKC at DEN -6.5, 207
DEN by 6.1
Winner:	DEN *****
Spread:	OKC +6.5
O/U:	OVER *****
IND at POR -9.5, 201.5
POR by 6.1
Winner:	POR *****
Spread:	IND +9.5
O/U:	UNDER
PHX -4 at LAC, 211
PHX by 3.6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	LAC +4
O/U:	UNDER *****

3/2 Picks

Finally, picks are back up. It's been a pain-in-the-ass combination of technical difficulties regarding stat sources, a need to update the model, and later days at work preventing the afternoon pick updates. Thanks to everyone that's stuck around!

SAC at OKC -10.5, 203
OKC by 9.5
Winner:	OKC *****
Spread:	SAC +10.5
O/U:	UNDER
IND at LAL -12.5, 208.5
LAL by 10.4
Winner:	LAL *****
Spread:	IND +12.5
O/U:	UNDER *****