11/19 Picks

PHX -8 at NO
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NO +8
SU Underdog:	---
UTA at SAS -5
Winner:	SAS
Spread:	SAS -5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CHI at LAL -10
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	CHI +10
SU Underdog:	---

19-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	1	2	50.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	0	1	0.0%
Non-***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Overall ATS	1	3	33.3%

11/18 Picks

OKC at ORL -12
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	OKC +12 *****
SU Underdog:	---
NYK at IND -6.5
Winner:	IND
Spread:	IND -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at PHI -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHI -3.5
SU Underdog:	---
MIA at ATL -7.5
Winner:	ATL
Spread:	ATL -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CLE -4.5 at WAS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	WAS +4.5
SU Underdog:	---
GS at BOS -16
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	GS +16.5
SU Underdog:	---
LAC at MEM -5
Winner:	LAC
Spread:	LAC +5 *****
SU Underdog:	LAC
HOU -5.5 at MIN
Winner:	HOU
Spread:	HOU -5.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
NJ at MIL -10
Winner:	MIL
Spread:	MIL -10 *****
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at UTA -9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +9 *****
SU Underdog:	---
SAS at DAL -1.5
Winner:	DAL
Spread:	DAL -1.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DET at POR -10.5
Winner:	POR
Spread:	DET +10.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---

18-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	6	8	75.0%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	5	9	55.6%
Non-***** ATS	2	3	66.7%
Overall ATS	7	12	58.3%

11/17 Picks

That @sshole Home Court Advantage is starting to rear its ugly head. I'm making adjustments which should get us back on track.

GS at CLE -14
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	GS +15.5
SU Underdog:	---
IND -4.5 at NJ
Winner:	IND
Spread:	NJ +4.5
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at MIA -7
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	OKC +7
SU Underdog:	---
LAC -2 at NO
Winner:	LAC
Spread:	LAC +2 *****
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at HOU -3
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU -3
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at DEN -9
Winner:	DEN
Spread:	DEN -9 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CHI -2.5 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +2.5
SU Underdog:	---
DET at LAL -10
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	DET +10
SU Underdog:	---

17-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	4	6	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	6	33.3%
Overall ATS	3	8	37.5%

11/16 Picks

POR at ATL -3.5
Winner:	ATL
Spread:	ATL -3.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at ORL -13
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	ORL -11 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DAL at MIL -1.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL -1.5
SU Underdog:	---

16-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	2	100.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	0	1	0.0%
Overall ATS	1	3	33.3%

11/14 Picks

The picks will be up a little later today, but I promise they'll be up before 7; probably before 5. I'm running behind with NFL this week so my poor little laptop is running 4 NFL simulations at 100 MB of memory each at CPU of 100%. It's just a matter of time before my laptop explodes. I hope it's not on my lap when it happens...

Sims finished sooner than I thought, here are the picks:

BOS -7.5 at IND
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	IND +7.5
SU Underdog:	---
NO at ATL -12.5
Winner:	ATL
Spread:	NO +12.5
SU Underdog:	---
POR -3 at CHA
Winner:	POR
Spread:	CHA +3
SU Underdog:	---
DET at WAS -3.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DET +3.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
UTA at CLE -13.5
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	UTA +13.5
SU Underdog:	---
NJ at MIA -13
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	NJ +13
SU Underdog:	---
PHI at CHI -7
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	PHI +7
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at MEM -9
Winner:	MIN
Spread:	MIN +9 *****
SU Underdog:	MIN
GS at MIL -8
Winner:	MIL
Spread:	MIL -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at SAS -8
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS -8
SU Underdog:	---

14-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	6	8	75.0%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	1	3	33.3%
Non-***** ATS	4	7	57.1%
Overall ATS	5	10	50.0%

11/13 Picks

I hate nights with 2 games. When there are two games, you need to hit both to make money. Win 0 games, you lose 100% of your investment (at 57% accuracy; 18% probability). Win 1 game, you lose 4.5% of your investment (I use an ATS payout of 1.91, decimal odds are easier to use in calculations; that's 49% probability ). Win 2 games, you make 91% (32% probability).

The probability that you lose money on a 2 game night at 57% accuracy: 18% + 49% = about 68%.

NJ at ORL -15.5
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	NJ +15.5
SU Underdog:	---
UTA at PHI -2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHI -2
SU Underdog:	---
GS at NYK -3
Winner:	NYK
Spread:	NYK -3
SU Underdog:	---
ATL at BOS -9
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -9
SU Underdog:	---
DAL -11 at MIN
Winner:	DAL
Spread:	MIN +11
SU Underdog:	---
POR -3 at NO
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -3 *****
SU Underdog:	---
HOU -5 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +5
SU Underdog:	---
LAL at DEN -4
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DEN -4
SU Underdog:	---
TOR -2.5 at LAC
Winner:	TOR
Spread:	LAC +2.5
SU Underdog:	---

I hope some people out there found NJ +16.5 instead of NJ +15.5. That's some BS right there.

13-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	4	6	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	1	100.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	8	25.0%
Overall ATS	3	9	33.3%

11/12 Picks

Not a great night last night but 7-6 (53.8%) is still in the money. ***** picks are finally catching up in terms of accuracy, though playing every game is still netting more money after 75 picks. Who else do you know that picks every single game with an ROI of 10.4% and unit gain of $780 in just 10 days, starting on 11/2?

By the way, if you know some people that are into this kinda thing, feel free to let them know. The more, the merrier.

CLE at MIA
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA *****
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at LAL -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHX +7.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---

Aww man...

12-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	0	1	0.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	0.0%
***** ATS	0	2	0.0%
Non-***** ATS	0	0	---
Overall ATS	0	2	0.0%

11/11 Picks

Damn good night last night. I accidentally left of '*****' from the CHI game. Since it is part of the accuracy of the model I'm including it as *****.

HUUUUGE card tonight:

CHI at TOR -6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +6 *****
SU Underdog:	---
GS at IND -5.5
Winner:	IND
Spread:	GS +5.5
SU Underdog:	---
ATL -6 at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +6
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at DET -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DET -4.5
SU Underdog:	---
PHI -5.5 at NJ
Winner:	PHI
Spread:	PHI -5.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
UTA at BOS -12
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -12 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CLE at ORL
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	ORL
SU Underdog:	---
DEN -3.5 at MIL
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
POR -8 at MIN
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DAL -1.5 at SAS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS +1.5
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at HOU -9
Winner:	HOU
Spread:	MEM +9
SU Underdog:	---
NO at PHX -6.5
Winner:	PHX
Spread:	PHX -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at LAC -2
Winner:	OKC
Spread:	OKC +2 *****
SU Underdog:	OKC

11-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	7	8	87.5%
SU Underdog	1	1	100.0%
***** ATS	4	6	66.7%
Non-***** ATS	3	7	42.9%
Overall ATS	7	13	53.8%

11/10 Picks

ORL -3.5 at CHA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
WAS at MIA -8
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DEN -2.5 at CHI
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	CHI +2.5 *****
SU Underdog:	CHI
POR -6.5 at MEM
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
HOU at DAL -6.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DAL -6.5
SU Underdog:	---
OKC -2 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +2
SU Underdog:	---

COMBINED
10-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	3	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	3	3	100.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	3	66.7%
Overall ATS	5	6	83.3%

11/9 Picks

Check out today's power rankings! First of the season. What do you think?

PHX -2.5 at PHI
Winner:	PHX
Spread:	PHX -2.5
SU Underdog:	---
UTA -5.5 at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +5.5
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at SAS -7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS -7
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at GS -6.5
Winner:	MIN
Spread:	MIN +6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	MIN
NO -2 at LAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	LAC +2
SU Underdog:	---

Oh man, that Spurs game was a killer. Thanks, Jefferson, for that last free throw... a tie is better than a loss.

9-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	1	2	50.0%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Overall ATS	2	4	50.0%

11/8 Picks

PHI at DET -1.5
Winner:	PHI
Spread:	PHI +1.5 *****
SU Underdog:	PHI
PHX -2.5 at WAS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	WAS +2.5
SU Underdog:	---
ORL -6 at OKC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	OKC +6
SU Underdog:	---
GS -3.5 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at POR -13
Winner:	POR
Spread:	MIN +13
SU Underdog:	---
NO at LAL -6.5
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	LAL -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---

8-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	3	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	4	50.0%
Overall ATS	3	6	50.0%

11/7 Picks

DEN at ATL -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL -2.5
SU Underdog:	---
BOS -14 at NJ
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	NJ +14
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at CHI -7
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	CHI -7 *****
SU Underdog:	---
NYK at MIL -4.5
Winner:	MIL
Spread:	MIL -4.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at DAL -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +7.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
SAC at UTA -15.5
Winner:	UTA
Spread:	SAC +15.5
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at LAC -4
Winner:	LAC
Spread:	MEM +4
SU Underdog:	---

7-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	4	5	80.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	3	33.3%
Non-***** ATS	4	4	100.0%
Overall ATS	5	7	71.4%

11/6 Picks

We're still only ***one week*** into the season, try not to rely too heavily on these picks.

ATL -2 at CHA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +2
SU Underdog:	---
DET at ORL -13
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	DET +13
SU Underdog:	---
NJ at PHI -12.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NJ +12.5
SU Underdog:	---
WAS at IND -1
Winner:	WAS
Spread:	WAS +1 *****
SU Underdog:	WAS
DEN at MIA
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA *****
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at BOS -10.5
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -10.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CLE -8 at NYK
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	NYK +8
SU Underdog:	---
MIL at MIN -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +2.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at NO -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at HOU -6.5
Winner:	HOU
Spread:	OKC +6.5
SU Underdog:	---
LAC at GS -4.5
Winner:	GS
Spread:	GS -4.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at LAL -10
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	MEM +10
SU Underdog:	---
SAS at POR -4
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -4 *****
SU Underdog:	---

6-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	6	9	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	4	7	57.1%
Non-***** ATS	3	6	50.0%
Overall ATS	7	13	53.8%