11/12 Picks

Not a great night last night but 7-6 (53.8%) is still in the money. ***** picks are finally catching up in terms of accuracy, though playing every game is still netting more money after 75 picks. Who else do you know that picks every single game with an ROI of 10.4% and unit gain of $780 in just 10 days, starting on 11/2?

By the way, if you know some people that are into this kinda thing, feel free to let them know. The more, the merrier.

CLE at MIA
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA *****
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at LAL -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	PHX +7.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---

Aww man...

12-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	0	1	0.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	0.0%
***** ATS	0	2	0.0%
Non-***** ATS	0	0	---
Overall ATS	0	2	0.0%

11/11 Picks

Damn good night last night. I accidentally left of '*****' from the CHI game. Since it is part of the accuracy of the model I'm including it as *****.

HUUUUGE card tonight:

CHI at TOR -6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +6 *****
SU Underdog:	---
GS at IND -5.5
Winner:	IND
Spread:	GS +5.5
SU Underdog:	---
ATL -6 at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +6
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at DET -4.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DET -4.5
SU Underdog:	---
PHI -5.5 at NJ
Winner:	PHI
Spread:	PHI -5.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
UTA at BOS -12
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -12 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CLE at ORL
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	ORL
SU Underdog:	---
DEN -3.5 at MIL
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
POR -8 at MIN
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DAL -1.5 at SAS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS +1.5
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at HOU -9
Winner:	HOU
Spread:	MEM +9
SU Underdog:	---
NO at PHX -6.5
Winner:	PHX
Spread:	PHX -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at LAC -2
Winner:	OKC
Spread:	OKC +2 *****
SU Underdog:	OKC

11-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	7	8	87.5%
SU Underdog	1	1	100.0%
***** ATS	4	6	66.7%
Non-***** ATS	3	7	42.9%
Overall ATS	7	13	53.8%

11/10 Picks

ORL -3.5 at CHA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
WAS at MIA -8
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA -8 *****
SU Underdog:	---
DEN -2.5 at CHI
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	CHI +2.5 *****
SU Underdog:	CHI
POR -6.5 at MEM
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
HOU at DAL -6.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	DAL -6.5
SU Underdog:	---
OKC -2 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +2
SU Underdog:	---

COMBINED
10-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	3	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	3	3	100.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	3	66.7%
Overall ATS	5	6	83.3%

11/9 Picks

Check out today's power rankings! First of the season. What do you think?

PHX -2.5 at PHI
Winner:	PHX
Spread:	PHX -2.5
SU Underdog:	---
UTA -5.5 at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +5.5
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at SAS -7
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAS -7
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at GS -6.5
Winner:	MIN
Spread:	MIN +6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	MIN
NO -2 at LAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	LAC +2
SU Underdog:	---

Oh man, that Spurs game was a killer. Thanks, Jefferson, for that last free throw... a tie is better than a loss.

9-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	1	2	50.0%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Overall ATS	2	4	50.0%

11/8 Picks

PHI at DET -1.5
Winner:	PHI
Spread:	PHI +1.5 *****
SU Underdog:	PHI
PHX -2.5 at WAS
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	WAS +2.5
SU Underdog:	---
ORL -6 at OKC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	OKC +6
SU Underdog:	---
GS -3.5 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +3.5
SU Underdog:	---
MIN at POR -13
Winner:	POR
Spread:	MIN +13
SU Underdog:	---
NO at LAL -6.5
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	LAL -6.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---

8-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	3	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	1	2	50.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	4	50.0%
Overall ATS	3	6	50.0%

11/7 Picks

DEN at ATL -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ATL -2.5
SU Underdog:	---
BOS -14 at NJ
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	NJ +14
SU Underdog:	---
CHA at CHI -7
Winner:	CHI
Spread:	CHI -7 *****
SU Underdog:	---
NYK at MIL -4.5
Winner:	MIL
Spread:	MIL -4.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at DAL -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +7.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
SAC at UTA -15.5
Winner:	UTA
Spread:	SAC +15.5
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at LAC -4
Winner:	LAC
Spread:	MEM +4
SU Underdog:	---

7-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	4	5	80.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	3	33.3%
Non-***** ATS	4	4	100.0%
Overall ATS	5	7	71.4%

11/6 Picks

We're still only ***one week*** into the season, try not to rely too heavily on these picks.

ATL -2 at CHA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHA +2
SU Underdog:	---
DET at ORL -13
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	DET +13
SU Underdog:	---
NJ at PHI -12.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NJ +12.5
SU Underdog:	---
WAS at IND -1
Winner:	WAS
Spread:	WAS +1 *****
SU Underdog:	WAS
DEN at MIA
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA *****
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at BOS -10.5
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -10.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
CLE -8 at NYK
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	NYK +8
SU Underdog:	---
MIL at MIN -2.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +2.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
TOR at NO -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	TOR +5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
OKC at HOU -6.5
Winner:	HOU
Spread:	OKC +6.5
SU Underdog:	---
LAC at GS -4.5
Winner:	GS
Spread:	GS -4.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at LAL -10
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	MEM +10
SU Underdog:	---
SAS at POR -4
Winner:	POR
Spread:	POR -4 *****
SU Underdog:	---

6-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	6	9	66.7%
SU Underdog	0	1	0.0%
***** ATS	4	7	57.1%
Non-***** ATS	3	6	50.0%
Overall ATS	7	13	53.8%

11/5 Picks

This seems like a good time to say that since these picks are based on stats from this season, they will almost definitely get better as the season progresses and more stats become available.

CHI at CLE -11.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	CHI +11.5 *****
SU Underdog:	---
SAS -1.5 at UTA
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	UTA +1.5
SU Underdog:	---

5-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	0	0	---
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	1	1	100.0%
Non-***** ATS	1	1	100.0%
Overall ATS	2	2	100.0%

11/4 Picks

DET at TOR -8
Winner:	DET
Spread:	DET +8 *****
SU Underdog:	DET
MIA at WAS -2
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	WAS -2
SU Underdog:	---
PHX at ORL -8
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	ORL -8
SU Underdog:	---
DEN -9 at NJ
Winner:	DEN
Spread:	NJ +9
SU Underdog:	---
IND at NYK -5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK -5
SU Underdog:	---
BOS -13 at MIN
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -13 *****
SU Underdog:	---
LAL -2 at HOU
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	HOU +2
SU Underdog:	---
DAL at NO -4.5
Winner:	DAL
Spread:	DAL +4.5 *****
SU Underdog:	DAL
ATL -5.5 at SAC
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC +5.5
SU Underdog:	---
MEM at GS -6
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MEM +6
SU Underdog:	---

4-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	2	4	50.0%
SU Underdog	0	2	0.0%
***** ATS	0	3	0.0%
Non-***** ATS	2	7	28.6%
Overall ATS	2	10	20.0%

11/3 Picks

Off to a great start: 4-1 (80%) ATS, 2-0 (100%) *****. Let's hope it stays that way!

Remember, when a pick has '*****' next to it, it's a high probability ATS pick. They're less frequent but more accurate.

BOS -7 at PHI
Winner:	BOS
Spread:	BOS -7 *****
Underdog:	N/A
DEN -5.5 at IND
Winner:	DEN
Spread:	IND +5.5
Underdog:	N/A
WAS at CLE -11.5
Winner:	CLE
Spread:	CLE -11.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
ORL -6.5 at DET
Winner:	ORL
Spread:	ORL -6.5 *****
Underdog:	N/A
PHX at MIA -4
Winner:	MIA
Spread:	MIA -4 *****
Underdog:	N/A
LAL -7.5 at OKC
Winner:	LAL
Spread:	OKC +7.5
Underdog:	N/A
MIL at CHI -9
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIL +9
Underdog:	N/A
UTA at DAL -6
Winner:	DAL
Spread:	DAL -6 *****
Underdog:	N/A
ATL at POR -7
Winner:	POR
Spread:	ATL +7
Underdog:	N/A

3-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	5	8	62.5%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
***** ATS	3	5	60.0%
Non-***** ATS	3	4	75.0%
Overall ATS	6	9	66.7%

11/2 Picks (First picks of the season!!!)

NJ at CHA -7
Winner:	CHA
Spread:	CHA -7 *****
Underdog Win:	N/A
NO -2.5 at NYK
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	NYK +2.5
Underdog:	N/A
HOU at UTA -7.5
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	UTA -7.5
Underdog:	N/A
MEM at SAC -1
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	SAC -1
Underdog:	N/A
MIN at LAC -8
Winner:	SPLIT
Spread:	MIN +8 *****
Underdog:	N/A

2-Nov	Correct	Games	Win%
Straight up	1	1	100.0%
SU Underdog	0	0	---
ATS	4	5	80.0%
*****	2	2	100.0%

12/4 Picks

I decided to take a look back at the past 600 games, give or take, to figure out a way to quantify the probabilities of games. Based on the win probabilities of games given differences in my calculated spread and Vegas' spread, with the help of some linear regression, I've come up with a reasonable way to assign probabilities. As of now, it's completely untested. I'll post it, but I've got no idea how well it'll work, so we'll figure it out as we go along. The minimum possible probability is 60% because no difference in predicted and Vegas lines has been less than 60% accurate. Technically a game could get up to 100% but that's extremely unlikely. I'll track it from now on, maybe it'll work perfectly or not at all, who knows...

PHX at DAL -1
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +1, 71% *****
Underdog: PHX

SAS at DEN -4
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4, 66%
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	0	1	0.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0.0%
*****	0	2	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

NBA Lines

I've been getting some emails about inconsistencies and possible errors with the lines. I try to get everything through the formulas as soon as I can, using the earliest possible lines. If anyone's got some ideas as to how I can improve this, please post a comment or send me an email.

I'm open to any and all suggestions. Since I'm doing this for free, I've got no reason to try to inflate my record, I'm just trying to help people out. I'm willing to do whatever is necessary to improve the consistency.

Thanks!

12/3 Picks

I never realized how drastically Vegas' lines changed hour-by-hour until yesterday. When I ran the numbers, DAL was a 5.5 point favorite. A few hours later, it was up to 11. If the current line is vastly different from the line I posted, use your judgment as to whether or not you should act on it.

I'm also going to put ***** next to the higher probability picks. Yesterday, I was 4-4 overall, but the higher probability picks were 3-1. It can't hurt to give out a little more info. Leave it up to you guys to decide what sort of risk you're willing to take. For an idea of the difference in accuracy, the regular picks hit 60.4% over 212 games over the past month. ***** picks went 66% over 94 games. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

MEM at ATL -9
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -9
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at WAS
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -7 at PHI
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7
Underdog: N/A

MIN at ORL -9
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -9
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CLE -14.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -14.5
Underdog: N/A

OKC at CHA -8.5
Winner: CHA
Spread: CHA -8.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at BOS -12.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at MIL -3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3 *****
Underdog: N/A

PHX at NO -5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +5 *****
Underdog: PHX

LAC at HOU -3
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIA at UTA -3
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	6	11	54.5%
*****	1	4	25.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

12/2 Picks

LAL -8.5 at IND
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8.5
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NJ -5.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -5.5
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at NYK
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at CHI -3
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -3
Underdog:

LAC at DAL -11
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -11
Underdog: N/A

DET at SAS -4
Winner: DET
Spread: DET +4
Underdog: DET

TOR at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAC -2
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +2
Underdog: UTA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	4	8	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

12/1 Picks

MIN at CHA -3.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -3.5
Underdog: N/A

ORL at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA -2 at GS
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA -2
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	2	3	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Week ending 11/30 Results

Another great week to follow NBA Black Box. At $10 a unit, the spread gained 53 units, going 13-7. Predicting the winner straight up did also did well, including picking the underdog, though there were only 3 games.

This past week, I switched the type of spread pick I posted. In the 11/29 post, I gave details. Pre-switch, NBA Black Box was 2-3 (40.0%), post-switch, NBA Black Box was 11-4 (73.3%). That change has worked out nicely so far.

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	34	42	81.0%
SPREAD	13	20	65.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	3	66.7%

11/30 Power Rankings

New power rankings are up for this week. No changes in the top 3, still the Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics, though the Lakers' lead is narrowing. The Mavericks shot up 7 places this week to number 9, while the 76ers crashed down 6 places to 15. The Clippers and Thunder are still holding the bottom spots. (OKC couldn't come up with a better team name than "Thunder"? Isn't there a WNBA team named Thunder? At least now there's another non-plural team to join the Heat, Jazz, and Magic.)

11/30 Picks

POR at DET -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +4.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at PHI -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6
Underdog: N/A

HOU at DEN -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHX -9
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -9
Underdog: N/A

TOR at LAL -12
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -12
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	2	50.0%
SPREAD	4	5	80.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---