Monday 29 December 2008

Last Week's Results

Good news, everyone: I've started tracking the confidence of picks based on the difference between the predicted score and the spread. Once I get a sufficiently large sample size, I'll share the results. This has the potential to increase the accuracy even further...

A great guy named eric has a model of his own. When his system agrees with my system, the picks are 18-1 (94.7%) :-O. That includes both ***** and regular picks. Every once in a while he posts the pick in the day's comment section, so keep an eye out for those.

Finally, the donations I receive don't actually go to beer, they go to the development of Black Box Sports: web site, monitor/contest costs, etc. With your help, I'll have the incentive to keep working to improve my simulators and algorithms. A baseball simulator is on the way. NHL and soccer models are in the very early stages. I'm toying with the ideas of boxing and horse racing if I can find enough free statistics to make them work. Of course, school comes first, so I'm not setting any deadlines - I'll work on them when I can.


Wow, what a week.


Correct Games Win%
STRAIGHT-UP 40 48 83.3%
SPREAD 34 56 60.7%
***** 18 24 75.0%
SU UNDERDOG WIN 3 4 75.0%

***** picks: +1140 units, ROI 47.5%. Even better than last week.

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