12/4 Picks

I decided to take a look back at the past 600 games, give or take, to figure out a way to quantify the probabilities of games. Based on the win probabilities of games given differences in my calculated spread and Vegas' spread, with the help of some linear regression, I've come up with a reasonable way to assign probabilities. As of now, it's completely untested. I'll post it, but I've got no idea how well it'll work, so we'll figure it out as we go along. The minimum possible probability is 60% because no difference in predicted and Vegas lines has been less than 60% accurate. Technically a game could get up to 100% but that's extremely unlikely. I'll track it from now on, maybe it'll work perfectly or not at all, who knows...

PHX at DAL -1
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +1, 71% *****
Underdog: PHX

SAS at DEN -4
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4, 66%
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	0	1	0.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0.0%
*****	0	2	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%