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1/13 Picks
WAS at ATL -11, 203.5
|
ATL by 11
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Winner:
| ATL *****
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Spread:
| ATL -11 *****
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O/U:
| OVER
|
|
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PHX -3.5 at IND, 228
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PHX by 7.3
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| PHX -3.5
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O/U:
| UNDER *****
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NYK at PHI -2.5, 203.5
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NYK by 3.1
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| NYK +2.5 *****
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O/U:
| UNDER
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BOS -8 at NJ, 188
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BOS by 15.7
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Winner:
| BOS *****
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Spread:
| BOS -8
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O/U:
| OVER
|
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LAC at NO -7.5, 192.5
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NO by 2.2
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| LAC +7.5 *****
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O/U:
| OVER *****
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SAS at OKC -1.5, 193
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SAS by 5.9
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| SAS +1.5
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O/U:
| OVER *****
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LAL at DAL -7, 195.5
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LAL by 5.2
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| LAL +7 *****
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O/U:
| OVER *****
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MIN at HOU -9.5, 203.5
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HOU by 11.1
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Winner:
| HOU *****
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Spread:
| HOU -9.5 *****
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O/U:
| OVER
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ORL at DEN -5, 210.5
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DEN by 2.4
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| ORL +5
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O/U:
| OVER
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MIL at POR -6, 192.5
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POR by 0.4
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Winner:
| POR *****
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Spread:
| MIL +6
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O/U:
| OVER
|
|
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MIA at GS -2.5, 215
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GS by 3.4
|
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Winner:
| SPLIT
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Spread:
| GS -2.5
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O/U:
| UNDER *****
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COMBINED
|
|
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13-Jan
| Correct
| Games
| Win%
|
SU - non *****
| 0
| 0
| ---
|
ATS - non *****
| 2
| 6
| 33.3%
|
O/U - non *****
| 5
| 6
| 83.3%
|
|
|
|
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SU *****
| 4
| 4
| 100.0%
|
ATS *****
| 3
| 5
| 60.0%
|
O/U *****
| 2
| 5
| 40.0%
|
6 comments:
Rough night last night! I am on a 0-5 skid right now so I'm backing off betting for a week or so, keep up the great work!
Yeah, it's been kinda rough since the new year. Ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
was the model changed or "updated" so it isnt the same as December?
He mad mention over his break for the holidays that he was updating the model, but I think he is constantly making updates to the model anyway, since things are constantly changing and need to be tweaked here and there. Don't forget when he puts these up these are merely suggestions, statistics and numbers cant take into account everything (for instance he mentioned injuries are a big one and the Lakers are hurting bad right now, especially that feeling I get when there is a last second buzzer beater that turns my sure bet into a loss :) )
SimCapper, I am curious if ou have ever had a look over of Ken Pomeroys site, he seems to have a love of statistics almost on the next level (his site has some images from a stat sheet from the 60's somewhere. His main focus is NCAAB. I'd be interested your take on his work, he uses Pythagorean theorem (no idea how) and logarithms (spelling). when you have some free time give it a gander if it peaks your interest I just found out about it the other day.
Timber, thanks for clearing things up.
The model was updated earlier this month to include more data points since the last update. The structure of the model remains exactly the same but the data set is expanded. Unless I misunderstood some statistics concepts, I believe that a predictive model improves as more prior data is included: a model to predict January is 'better' when it's based on data from 12/1 - 12/31 as opposed to just 12/1 - 12/14.
Backtesting showed that there was, in fact, a significant dropoff in ATS accuracy from Dec to Jan. The backtest showed an accuracy of 75% last December, which we almost nailed this December. Last year showed January accuracy of 61% - a 14 pt drop, but still over 60%.
Haven't heard of Ken, but I'll definitely check him out - sounds interesting.
the pom ratings are very good. been using the for a little bit now. no qualms.
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