Hook 'Em!
Big night tonight. Huge test for the updated model.
| TOR at PHI -2, 208 | |
| TOR by 1.5 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | TOR +2 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| ORL at WAS -7.5, 202 | |
| ORL by 6.3 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | WAS +7.5 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| BOS at ATL -3.5, 196 | |
| ATL by 2.3 | |
| Winner: | ATL ***** |
| Spread: | BOS +3.5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| UTA at MEM -3.5, 203 | |
| UTA by 5.9 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | UTA +3.5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| IND at MIN -4, 211 | |
| IND by 4.1 | |
| Winner: | IND ***** |
| Spread: | IND +4 ***** |
| O/U: | UNDER ***** |
| NJ at NO -9.5, 189.5 | |
| NO by 8.3 | |
| Winner: | NO ***** |
| Spread: | NJ +9.5 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| CHI at MIL -3.5, 194.5 | |
| MIL by 9.4 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | MIL -3.5 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| DAL at SAS -4.5, 195 | |
| SAS by 1.8 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | DAL +4.5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| MIA at PHX -6, 213.5 | |
| PHX by 11.1 | |
| Winner: | PHX ***** |
| Spread: | PHX -6 |
| O/U: | UNDER |
| LAL -4 at POR, 194.5 | |
| LAL by 4.8 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | LAL -4 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| CLE -3 at DEN, 202 | |
| DEN by 7.8 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | DEN +3 ***** |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| SAC at GS -4.5, 227 | |
| SAC by 0.4 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | SAC +4.5 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| 8-Jan | Correct | Games | Win% |
| SU - non ***** | 0 | 0 | --- |
| ATS - non ***** | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| O/U - non ***** | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| SU ***** | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| ATS ***** | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| O/U ***** | 2 | 6 | 33.3% |
| SU Overall | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| ATS Overall | 6 | 12 | 50.0% |
| O/U Overall | 4 | 12 | 33.3% |
12 comments:
I had to stop watching at half time it was to painful, i was very indifferent to betting that game from the start because it was just to washy, if colt was in there though.. no telling the outcome.
Great to see you back!
Interested in finding out more about the MLB capper you got coming out!
Welcome back Sim Capper,
Now with all the lines out at the majority of books, any ***** plays for DEN +2, UT +3.5, or IND +3. Thanks.
Hey just a quick clarification if you could
MIA at PHX -6, 213
PHX by 11.1
Winner: PHX *****
Spread: MIA +6 *****
O/U: OVER *****
it says PHX by 11 but then there is a *** Mia +6
am I reading that right?
1. My betting theory regarding your favorite team: always bet against your favorite team on the moneyline. First, value how much you want your team to win, then bet that amount on the other team to win.
For example, I would have been happy to pay at least $100 for Texas to win. The excitement I'd feel would have been well worth $100. Therefore, I'd bet $100 on Alabama to win. If Texas wins, it's as if I payed $100 for them to win, which I was totally fine with. If they lose, I get a consolation prize... a payout of about $150 last night. Either way, I'm happy-ish.
Just a bit of psychology/game theory. Makes sense in my head, anyway.
2. If I have a job before the MLB season, I will not have the time/energy to finish that project. If I'm unemployed, I can probably get it done, no promises.
3. I'll fix all of that stuff when it's lunchtime.
any thoughts?
1. Those who are involved in gambling for recreation probably aren't into maximizing their utility in monetary terms (haha). It's all or nothing ! Considering most sports fans don't wager, the ones who do for recreation are generally more fanatic than others. They'd probably have a harder time wagering against their team and couldn't justify the trade-off. I think it's a good idea personally though.
2. Shame, if your MLB simulations were half as good as the NBA sims, it'd be worth it. NHL/MLB moneylines are one thing I've always found profitable through simple use of the pythag. theroem with plays on dogs and non-public favs. Maybe I should start a blog for that ! =P
Anyways, good to see you back. I'm going to keep an eye on your winner ***** picks for a while and track parlays each day with all the ML favorites using 5D or BP's lines (whoever has better odds combined for the parlay that particular day). I'm curious to see parlay results with the ~80% rate the individual ML's are hitting.
Ah, utility. Reminds me of my economics days. That's exactly what applies here. Gotta look at sports betting as a business... Texas, I love you, but it's nothing personal. Emotion has no place in any kind of wager. That's why the casual bettors lose and the serious bettors win.
I'd be very careful with the moneyline parlays, even at ~80%. My own experience is that moneyline payouts are extremely unfair. Vegas drastically underpays both the favorite and the dog. Honestly, I think they're a suckers bet now matter how accurate you are. But maybe you'll get some good results, please keep us posted!
NHL sim capper would be awesome! I totally agree with you on the mantra "Heart stays out of bets" I have a hard time ever putting money on my favorite team thus I only do when all my ducks line up in their row, as such I have been profitable even when betting against. I wanted to play Texas last night, but I never could and I'm glad I didn't.
what type of time goes into your NBA games I have read before it takes 3 hours to sim the NFL games, is there a similar time line to the NBA games. I wish I was in a position to ofer help in the form of time to that but I don't blame you a bit for keeping your algorithms tight lipped ;)
keep up the good work! and I am leaning heavily on PHX ATS right now but I think I will lay off
Building and operating models is a full time job. I could get away with it at school, but it's tough to find the time now.
NBA takes close to 1 hour/day, 7 days a week.
Each NFL game takes about 3 hours to simulate. I just need to pick teams, click "Run" and check back in a couple hours. However, the preparation for the week including updating data, building spreadsheets, etc. takes 3 hours. Setting up all of the simulations is an hour. Then collecting and organizing all of the data from the sims takes another 3 hours. Filling up the spreadsheets is another 2. Finishing up the week is another hour. That's a total of about 10 hours of NFL per week.
7 NBA + 10 NFL = 17 total hours per week on Sim Capper. That's a lot of time.
The best way to help out is for everyone to send a donation of any amount to keep this site free. $5, $50, $500, whatever you think is fair. Thanks!
Did you go to UT?
There are many misconceptions among parlays I believe, and for good reason. There are a few reasons why they are not a good wager for a casual bettor:
- They will exponentiate their wins/losses (since most people lose money, this is usually a bad thing)
- Most casual bettors have access to a limited amount of books, making them take whatever odds are presented on the given side they'd like to parlay.
- Casual bettors often risk too much per bet as it is and increasing variance through parlays will drain a bankroll even quicker.
Even for more astute bettors they are often very flawed. Even though these bettors may keep their wager size low relative to their total bankroll and have access to many books, they are still going to have a hard time finding multiple games with value at the same book at the same time.
Just to give an example, assuming a person hits at a rate of 60% (Sim Capper's NBA picks from last year) and assuming -105 will be the average odds one receives per straight wager made over 300 picks, if these picks were all bet ATS individually (1 unit each):
180W, 120L
54 U (-105)
So 54 units, not bad. Now assume this was over a 100 day timespan and each day, 3 picks were given out. If each day one parlayed these picks with a -105 line, we have approx. 63 wins (this is rounding down) out of the 300.
63W, 237L
6.44 per parlay won with -105 lines. You have 405.72 units won.
168.72 U profit
The risk of ruin increases dramatically and could wipe a bankroll out if one is betting too much per parlay. However, if you are a long term winner and have solid money management, parlays are good in theory. But for the reasons stated above, they end up being of little use. They are still a far cry from a sucker's bet though (for people who win and know how to utilize them).
I don't plan on wagering the ***** winner parlays, but still am very interested in how they'd perform. Since most ***** winners seem to be large odds (-300 +up) I doubt it will do amazing, but still am going to track it. I will definitely post again after some time if they are doing well so others may know about it.
Sorry I was a little bored. =P
Been staring at lines too long.
I used to live in Fort Worth and started my College career at TCU. I graduated from USF 2 years ago. We just let our coach go. I will go ahead and support you through those means. Do you use excel or Access? or something you created? I want to create an access database that I put a lot of the info I put into my decisions and make it automated.. problem with that.. I'm not any good with access :). I decided to just take the night off from betting altogether (rare for me to not find any value in at least one game :))
the Parlay thing, I just cant bring myself to those, the only time I will ever parlay is if there is a large spread -11 and I'm betting the underdog, ATS I will sometimes parlay it with the ML odds of the other team. outside of that its not for me, my dad however did a cool $15,000 on parlays one season.. over the long run he has wasted much more then that trying to chase that season.
Pseudo: I think I was misunderstood. I think NBA moneyline bets are sucker bets. Parlays are fine and the Round Robin is the greatest betting vehicle ever created. Otherwise, everything you said is dead on. In fact, I tracked a bankroll from 11/1 to 12/31 making only Round Robin bets. I took all ***** games every night and bet on 1, 2, and 3 team combinations as well as a parlay of all games. Equal amounts on all bets. No exageration, the bankroll literally doubled in those 2 months. If you're interested go look up Round Robin Parlays. I read a research paper a while back that said 3 team round robins are ideal for a system hitting at 60% ATS.
Timbers: I use Excel, I know it better than Access. I really should switch to a database that uses SQL. TCU's a great school. Man, I miss Texas. Thanks for your support!
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