12/3 Picks

I never realized how drastically Vegas' lines changed hour-by-hour until yesterday. When I ran the numbers, DAL was a 5.5 point favorite. A few hours later, it was up to 11. If the current line is vastly different from the line I posted, use your judgment as to whether or not you should act on it.

I'm also going to put ***** next to the higher probability picks. Yesterday, I was 4-4 overall, but the higher probability picks were 3-1. It can't hurt to give out a little more info. Leave it up to you guys to decide what sort of risk you're willing to take. For an idea of the difference in accuracy, the regular picks hit 60.4% over 212 games over the past month. ***** picks went 66% over 94 games. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

MEM at ATL -9
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -9
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at WAS
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

LAL -7 at PHI
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7
Underdog: N/A

MIN at ORL -9
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -9
Underdog: N/A

NYK at CLE -14.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -14.5
Underdog: N/A

OKC at CHA -8.5
Winner: CHA
Spread: CHA -8.5
Underdog: N/A

IND at BOS -12.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at MIL -3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3 *****
Underdog: N/A

PHX at NO -5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +5 *****
Underdog: PHX

LAC at HOU -3
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

MIA at UTA -3
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA -3 *****
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	6	11	54.5%
*****	1	4	25.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	1	0.0%

12/2 Picks

LAL -8.5 at IND
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8.5
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NJ -5.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -5.5
Underdog: N/A

POR -6.5 at NYK
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -6.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at CHI -3
Winner: CHI
Spread: CHI -3
Underdog:

LAC at DAL -11
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -11
Underdog: N/A

DET at SAS -4
Winner: DET
Spread: DET +4
Underdog: DET

TOR at DEN -5.5
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -5.5
Underdog: N/A

UTA at SAC -2
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +2
Underdog: UTA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	6	8	75.0%
SPREAD	4	8	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

12/1 Picks

MIN at CHA -3.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHA -3.5
Underdog: N/A

ORL at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA -2 at GS
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: MIA -2
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	2	3	66.7%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/30 Picks

POR at DET -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: POR +4.5
Underdog: N/A

CHI at PHI -6
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6
Underdog: N/A

HOU at DEN -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

NJ at PHX -9
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -9
Underdog: N/A

TOR at LAL -12
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -12
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	2	50.0%
SPREAD	4	5	80.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/29 Picks

I'm going to start posting the spread for every game. To predict the games, there is a formula A and a formula B. When the two agree, they are about 65% accurate. B on its own is only 60% accurate. However, A has only picked half as many games as B, so for betting, the sheer number of bets available for B makes up for the slightly lower win %.

IND at ORL -8.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: IND +8.5
Underdog: N/A

ATL at WAS -1
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL +1
Underdog: ATL

BOS -12 at CHA
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -12
Underdog: N/A

GS at NYK -8.5
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -8.5
Underdog: N/A

DEN -4 at MIN
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4
Underdog: N/A

OKC at MEM -8
Winner: MEM
Spread: MEM -8
Underdog: N/A

SAS at HOU -4
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: HOU -4
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at MIL
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -7
Underdog: N/A

NJ at UTA -8
Winner: UTA
Spread: NJ +8
Underdog: N/A

DAL -5 at SAC
Winner: DAL
Spread: DAL -5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at LAC -1
Winner: MIA
Spread: MIA +1
Underdog: MIA

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	10	70.0%
SPREAD	7	10	70.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	1	2	50.0%

11/28 Picks

ATL at TOR -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: ATL +5.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at CLE -11.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN -2.5 at OKC
Winner: MIN
Spread: MIN -2.5
Underdog: N/A

MIA at PHX -8.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIL at DET -9
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHA at IND -7.5
Winner: IND
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MEM at SAS -10
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at UTA -11
Winner: UTA
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO at POR -5
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

DAL at LAL -11
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	8	10	80.0%
SPREAD	1	2	50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/27 Picks

ORL -3.5 at WAS
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -3.5
Underdog: N/A

NO at DEN EVEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	1	1	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/25 Picks

GS -1.5 at WAS, 211
Winner: GS
Spread: GS +1.5
Underdog: N/A

CLE -7 at NYK, 213
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHX -10 at OKC, 199
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

IND -1 at DAL, 180
Winner: IND
Spread: IND -1
Underdog: N/A

NJ at LAL -13.5, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	3	5	80.0%
SPREAD	0	2	0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/24 Picks

MIL at ORL -8.5, 190
Winner: ORL
Spread: MIL +8.5
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3 at CHA, 176
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

HOU -4 at MIA, 187
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAS -3.5 at MEM, 181
Winner: SAS
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at UTA -7, 202
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at POR -11.5, 205
Winner: POR
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

NO -6 at LAC, 186
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -6
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	4	4	100.0%
SPREAD	2	2	100.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

11/23 Picks

Check out this week's Power Rankings

Boring day...nothing to bet on.

BOS -5 at TOR, 185
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

GS at PHI -6.5, 208
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

MIN at DET -10, 189
Winner: DET
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

CHI at DEN -8.5,
Winner: DEN
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at LAL -17, 209
Winner: LAL
Spread: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

11/22 Picks

HOU at ORL -2, 184.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

MIL at CHA -2.5, 180
Winner: MIL
Spread: MIL +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: MIL

ATL at CLE -11, 197.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: SPLIT

IND at MIA -5.5, 198
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: IND +5.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC at NJ -3.5, 190.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

WAS at NYK -2.5, 204
Winner: NYK
Spread: NYK -2.5
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

OKC at NO -15.5, 190.5
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

UTA at MEM -3, 188
Winner: UTA
Spread: UTA +3
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: UTA

POR at PHX -5.5, 198.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	7	8	87.5%
SPREAD	3	5	60.0%
O/U	1	5	20.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	2	2	100.0%

11/20 Picks

DET at BOS -6, 184.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

LAL -5 at PHX, 207
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

	Correct	Games	Win%
WINS	2	2	100.0%
SPREAD	1	1	100.0%
O/U	0	1	0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN	0	0	---

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 5, Picks

*** I hate to say this, but use these picks with caution. Somehow Vegas figured out the numbers this week, it's never been this close. I'm going to post the difference between my calculated spread and Vegas' spread so if Vegas shifts the line or if your sportsbook is off by .5 or 1 point, you can adjust your strategy accordingly.

TOR at ORL -7.5
Winner: ORL
My Spread: ORL wins by 7.014 points, if Vegas moves the line down to -7, bet ORL -7
Spread: TOR +7.5

PHI at DET -9
Winner: DET
My Spread: DET wins by 11.57
Spread: DET -9

DAL at NO -6
Winner: NO
My Spread: NO by 5.687
Spread: DAL +6

UTA at HOU -2
Winner: HOU
My Spread: HOU by 3.001
Spread: HOU -2

PHX at SAS -5.5
Winner: SAS
My Spread: SAS by 4.648
Spread: PHX +5.5

WAS at CLE -5.5
Winner: CLE
My Spread: CLE by 3.797
Spread: WAS +5

ATL at BOS -14
Winner: BOS
My Spread: BOS by 17.88
Spread BOS -14

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4, Results

WINS
Correct	Games	Win%
4	5	80.0%
SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%
6	8	75.0%

ORL at TOR -3
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +3

HOU at UTA -8.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +8.5

CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Sprea: CLE +4

SAS at PHX -3.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -3.5

DET at PHI +5.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

NO at DAL -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5.5

BOS -9.5 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -9.5

LAL -5 at DEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN +5

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 3, Results

WINS
Correct	Games	Win%
1	6	16.7%
SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%
3	8	37.5%

ORL at TOR -4
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +4

CLE at WAS -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4.5

HOU at UTA -9
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +9

NO at DAL -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5

SAS at PHX -6.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SAS +6.5

DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

LAL at DEN -1.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL +1.5

BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4, Picks

ORL at TOR -3
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +3

HOU at UTA -8.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +8.5

CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Sprea: CLE +4

SAS at PHX -3.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -3.5

DET at PHI +5.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

NO at DAL -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5.5

BOS -9.5 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -9.5

LAL -5 at DEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN +5

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 3, Picks

Update (4/25 10:40 am): Added Detroit game
Update(4/26 11:05 am): Added LA and Boston

ORL at TOR -4
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +4

CLE at WAS -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4.5

HOU at UTA -9
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +9

NO at DAL -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5

SAS at PHX -6.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SAS +6.5

DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

LAL at DEN -1.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL +1.5

BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 2, Results

WINS
Correct	Games	Win%
7	8	87.5%
SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%
6	8	75.0%

WAS at CLE -2
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

DAL at NO -3.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3.5

TOR at ORL -5.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5.5

PHX at SAS -2.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -2.5

PHI at DET -10
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -10

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15

DEN at LAL -7.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7.5

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 2, Picks

Here's what Vegas has posted as of 7:30 am, Monday. When the other 3 games go up I'll add them to the list.

UPDATE: Added the final 3 games.

WAS at CLE -2
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

DAL at NO -3.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3.5

TOR at ORL -5.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5.5

PHX at SAS -2.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -2.5

PHI at DET -10
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -10

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15

DEN at LAL -7.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7.5

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 1, Results

WINS
Correct	Games	Win%
6	8	75.0%
SPREAD
Correct	Games	Win%
5	8	62.5%

WAS at CLE -2.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2.5

PHX at SAS -4
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -4

DAL at NO -4.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -4.5

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

TOR at ORL -6.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -6.5

DEN at LAL -8
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8

PHI at DET -9.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -9.5

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15