Showing posts with label NBA Pick 'Em. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NBA Pick 'Em. Show all posts

Wednesday, 3 December 2008

12/4 Picks

I decided to take a look back at the past 600 games, give or take, to figure out a way to quantify the probabilities of games. Based on the win probabilities of games given differences in my calculated spread and Vegas' spread, with the help of some linear regression, I've come up with a reasonable way to assign probabilities. As of now, it's completely untested. I'll post it, but I've got no idea how well it'll work, so we'll figure it out as we go along. The minimum possible probability is 60% because no difference in predicted and Vegas lines has been less than 60% accurate. Technically a game could get up to 100% but that's extremely unlikely. I'll track it from now on, maybe it'll work perfectly or not at all, who knows...

PHX at DAL -1
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX +1, 71% *****
Underdog: PHX

SAS at DEN -4
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -4, 66%
Underdog: N/A


Correct Games Win%
WINS 0 1 0.0%
SPREAD 0 2 0.0%
***** 0 2 0.0%
UNDERDOG WIN 0 1 0.0%

Monday, 1 December 2008

Week ending 11/30 Results

Another great week to follow NBA Black Box. At $10 a unit, the spread gained 53 units, going 13-7. Predicting the winner straight up did also did well, including picking the underdog, though there were only 3 games.

This past week, I switched the type of spread pick I posted. In the 11/29 post, I gave details. Pre-switch, NBA Black Box was 2-3 (40.0%), post-switch, NBA Black Box was 11-4 (73.3%). That change has worked out nicely so far.


Correct Games Win%
WINS 34 42 81.0%
SPREAD 13 20 65.0%
UNDERDOG WIN 2 3 66.7%

11/30 Power Rankings

New power rankings are up for this week. No changes in the top 3, still the Lakers, Cavs, and Celtics, though the Lakers' lead is narrowing. The Mavericks shot up 7 places this week to number 9, while the 76ers crashed down 6 places to 15. The Clippers and Thunder are still holding the bottom spots. (OKC couldn't come up with a better team name than "Thunder"? Isn't there a WNBA team named Thunder? At least now there's another non-plural team to join the Heat, Jazz, and Magic.)

Wednesday, 19 November 2008

11/19 Picks

***The preceding post is important***

How to read predictions:

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

WAS plays at ATL. ATL is a 7 point favorite. The O/U line is 200. The predicted winner is ATL. ATL will cover the 7 point spread. The total points will be less than 200.

If it says SPLIT, the algorithms disagreed, so there's no prediction. Underdog is N/A when an underdog was not predicted to win.

WAS at ATL -7, 200
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -7
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

CLE at DET -2.5, 190
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE +2.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: CLE

TOR at MIA -2.5, 188.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

DAL at HOU -3, 190
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

PHI -3.5 at MIN, 189
Winner: PHI
Spread: SPLIT
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

SAC at NO -13.5, 197
Winner: NO
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

LAC -1 at OKC, 187.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: SPLIT
OU: UNDER
Underdog: N/A

DEN at SAS -1, 181
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN +1
OU: OVER
Underdog: DEN

MIL at UTA -10.5, 190
Winner: UTA
Spread: MIL +10.5
OU: OVER
Underdog: N/A

CHI at POR -6.5, 195
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +6.5
OU: SPLIT
Underdog: N/A

Kind of a disappointing first day. Oh well.


Correct Games Win%
WINS 3 6 50.0%
SPREAD 2 5 40.0%
O/U 3 6 50.0%
UNDERDOG WIN 1 2 50.0%

Sunday, 2 November 2008

NBA '08-'09 Season

Hey Everybody,

The season is underway, so it's time for NBA Black Box to follow suit. By nature, predictions based on statistics become more accurate as more data becomes available. This means that it will take some time before the picks are accurate enough to post. I look at the process as 3 stages.

1) Allow enough statistics to become available for accurate predictions.
2) Track the predictions for a suitable amount of time to ensure that the trend has begun.
3) Start posting 'em.

Since the season is 1 week old, we're still in the 1st stage. I've got no clue how long it will take before we make it to stage 3, but I'm guessing it won't be for another month. Keep checking back periodically to catch when it starts up. Or, send your email address to blackboxsports@gmail.com and I'll notify you when the predictions begin.

Either way, head over to nflblackbox.blogspot.com to check out NFLSim, the play-by-play NFL simulator predicting the winners, spread, and over/under for every game. Magical things are happening, don't miss out.

Tuesday, 29 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 5, Picks

*** I hate to say this, but use these picks with caution. Somehow Vegas figured out the numbers this week, it's never been this close. I'm going to post the difference between my calculated spread and Vegas' spread so if Vegas shifts the line or if your sportsbook is off by .5 or 1 point, you can adjust your strategy accordingly.

TOR at ORL -7.5
Winner: ORL
My Spread: ORL wins by 7.014 points, if Vegas moves the line down to -7, bet ORL -7
Spread: TOR +7.5

PHI at DET -9
Winner: DET
My Spread: DET wins by 11.57
Spread: DET -9

DAL at NO -6
Winner: NO
My Spread: NO by 5.687
Spread: DAL +6

UTA at HOU -2
Winner: HOU
My Spread: HOU by 3.001
Spread: HOU -2

PHX at SAS -5.5
Winner: SAS
My Spread: SAS by 4.648
Spread: PHX +5.5

WAS at CLE -5.5
Winner: CLE
My Spread: CLE by 3.797
Spread: WAS +5

ATL at BOS -14
Winner: BOS
My Spread: BOS by 17.88
Spread BOS -14

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4, Results

WINS

Correct Games Win%
4 5 80.0%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
6 8 75.0%

ORL at TOR -3
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +3

HOU at UTA -8.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +8.5

CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Sprea: CLE +4

SAS at PHX -3.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -3.5

DET at PHI +5.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

NO at DAL -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5.5

BOS -9.5 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -9.5

LAL -5 at DEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN +5

Monday, 28 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 3, Results

WINS

Correct Games Win%
1 6 16.7%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
3 8 37.5%


ORL at TOR -4
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +4

CLE at WAS -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4.5

HOU at UTA -9
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +9

NO at DAL -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5

SAS at PHX -6.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SAS +6.5

DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

LAL at DEN -1.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL +1.5

BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8

Saturday, 26 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4, Picks

ORL at TOR -3
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +3

HOU at UTA -8.5
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +8.5

CLE at WAS -4
Winner: SPLIT
Sprea: CLE +4

SAS at PHX -3.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -3.5

DET at PHI +5.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

NO at DAL -5.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5.5

BOS -9.5 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -9.5

LAL -5 at DEN
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: DEN +5

Thursday, 24 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 3, Picks

Update (4/25 10:40 am): Added Detroit game
Update(4/26 11:05 am): Added LA and Boston

ORL at TOR -4
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL +4

CLE at WAS -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4.5

HOU at UTA -9
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +9

NO at DAL -5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +5

SAS at PHX -6.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: SAS +6.5

DET -5.5 at PHI
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -5.5

LAL at DEN -1.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL +1.5

BOS -8 at ATL
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 2, Results

WINS

Correct Games Win%
7 8 87.5%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
6 8 75.0%

WAS at CLE -2
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

DAL at NO -3.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3.5

TOR at ORL -5.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5.5

PHX at SAS -2.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -2.5

PHI at DET -10
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -10

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15

DEN at LAL -7.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7.5

Monday, 21 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 2, Picks

Here's what Vegas has posted as of 7:30 am, Monday. When the other 3 games go up I'll add them to the list.

UPDATE: Added the final 3 games.

WAS at CLE -2
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

DAL at NO -3.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -3.5

TOR at ORL -5.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5.5

PHX at SAS -2.5
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -2.5

PHI at DET -10
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -10

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15

DEN at LAL -7.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -7.5

Sunday, 20 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 1, Results

WINS

Correct Games Win%
6 8 75.0%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
5 8 62.5%

WAS at CLE -2.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2.5

PHX at SAS -4
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -4

DAL at NO -4.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -4.5

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

TOR at ORL -6.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -6.5

DEN at LAL -8
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8

PHI at DET -9.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -9.5

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -15

Saturday, 19 April 2008

Series-by-Series Playoff Predictions

Here are my predictions for the entire playoffs. I'm going to throw myself way out on a limb by predicting the winners of 15 7-game series, but I'm fairly confident. I'll even include the number of games each series will last.

Round 1:
East
BOS over ATL, 4 games
CLE over WAS, 5
ORL over TOR, 4
DET over PHI, 4
West
LAL over DEN, 4
HOU over UTA, 7
SAS over PHX, 7
NO over DAL, 5

Round 2:
East
BOS over CLE, 4
DET over ORL, 5
West
LAL over HOU, 5
NO over SAS, 7

Semi-finals:
East
BOS over DET, 4
West
LAL over NO, 5

FINALS:
BOS over LAL, 4 games


I see Boston sweeping their way through the playoffs, winning it all. Too bad for my Spurs...

I'll continue to pick every game, so be sure to check out the predictions.

Go Spurs Go!

Friday, 18 April 2008

Playoffs, Round 1, Game 1, Picks

WAS at CLE -2.5
Winner: CLE
Spread: CLE -2.5

PHX at SAS -4
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -4

DAL at NO -4.5
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -4.5

UTA at HOU -1
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -1

TOR at ORL -6.5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -6.5

DEN at LAL -8
Winner: LAL
Spread: LAL -8

PHI at DET -9.5
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -9.5

ATL at BOS -15
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS-15

Thursday, 17 April 2008

April 16, Results

WINS

Correct Games Win%
9 13 69.2%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
5 14 35.7%

DET -8 at CLE
Winner: DET
Spread: CLE +8

NO at DAL -9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +9

NYK at IND -7
Winner: IND
Spread: IND -7

WAS at ORL -5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5

PHI at CHA -1
Winner: PHI
Spread: PHI +1

NJ at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5

ATL -4 at MIA
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -4

MIL at MIN -7.5
Winner: MIN
Spread: MIL +7.5

TOR at CHI -7.5
Winner: TOR
Spread: TOR +7.5

LAC at HOU -14
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -14

MEM at DEN -16
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -16

UTA at SAS -4
Winner: SAS
Spread: UTA +4

POR at PHX -12
Winner: PHX
Spread: POR +12

SEA at GS -12.5
Winner: GS
Spread: GS -12.5

Wednesday, 16 April 2008

April 16, Picks

For some reason, there are only 5 games with spreads today.... that's no fun. I'll post the winners for the games w/out spreads.

UPDATE (10:10am): Vegas was just slow in getting the lines up, everything will be filled in soon.
UPDATE 2 (11:12am): OK, everything's up.

DET -8 at CLE
Winner: DET
Spread: CLE +8

NO at DAL -9
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: NO +9

NYK at IND -7
Winner: IND
Spread: IND -7

WAS at ORL -5
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -5

PHI at CHA -1
Winner: PHI
Spread: PHI +1

NJ at BOS -8.5
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8.5

ATL -4 at MIA
Winner: ATL
Spread: ATL -4

MIL at MIN -7.5
Winner: MIN
Spread: MIL +7.5

TOR at CHI -7.5
Winner: TOR
Spread: TOR +7.5

LAC at HOU -14
Winner: HOU
Spread: HOU -14

MEM at DEN -16
Winner: DEN
Spread: DEN -16

UTA at SAS -4
Winner: SAS
Spread: UTA +4

POR at PHX -12
Winner: PHX
Spread: POR +12

SEA at GS -12.5
Winner: GS
Spread: GS -12.5

April 15, Results

This is just crazy...

WINS

Correct Games Win%
6 6 100.0%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
5 6 83.3%

ORL -2 at ATL
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2

MIN at DET -7
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -7

CHA at NJ -3.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -3.5

LAC at NO -15
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -15

MEM at POR -11
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -11

SAC at LAL -17.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: SAC +17.5

Tuesday, 15 April 2008

April 15, Picks

ORL -2 at ATL
Winner: ORL
Spread: ORL -2

MIN at DET -7
Winner: DET
Spread: DET -7

CHA at NJ -3.5
Winner: NJ
Spread: NJ -3.5

LAC at NO -15
Winner: NO
Spread: NO -15

MEM at POR -11
Winner: POR
Spread: POR -11

SAC at LAL -17.5
Winner: LAL
Spread: SAC +17.5

Monday, 14 April 2008

April 14, Results

What a great day to be an NBA Black Boxer...come on, look at those numbers.

WINS

Correct Games Win%
6 6 100.0%
SPREAD

Correct Games Win%
5 7 71.4%


CLE at PHI -4.5
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CLE +4.5

IND at WAS -4.5
Winner: WAS
Spread: WAS -4.5

MIA at TOR -17.5
Winner: TOR
Spread: MIA +17.5

BOS -8 at NYK
Winner: BOS
Spread: BOS -8

CHI at MIL -3
Winner: SPLIT
Spread: CHI +3

HOU at UTA -9
Winner: UTA
Spread: HOU +9

GS at PHX -4.5
Winner: PHX
Spread: PHX -4.5

SAS -4 at SAC
Winner: SAS
Spread: SAS -4