Friday 4 December 2009

12/4 Picks

For those of you concerned about early/late, here's what I found this morning:
6 out of 10 ATS lines actually improved from 9 am to 12:30 pm and actually switched 2 games to *****. 1 got worse, 3 stayed the same.

The jury is still open on early/late posting so please leave a comment somewhere or email me w/ your opinion. Thanks!

Also, have to point out that in my note yesterday, I called HOU by 1.2 pts over GS, total of 222.8; HOU won by 2 pts after a shooting foul with 2 sec's to go for a total of 220. The actual total of the DEN game was 210, the model predicted 209.1 ... nice.

Note: 
- I have TOR losing by 3.4 pts, the line is 3.5. Total of 216.3, line is 215.5
- CLE total of 188.6. Line is 190
- MEM total of 206.5. Line is 206
- BOS win by 4.5, line is 4. Total of 194.5, line is 192.5

That should cover any line changes.

TOR at WAS -3.5, 215.5
Winner:
SPLIT
Spread:
TOR +3.5
O/U:
OVER
SU Underdog:
---


NYK at ATL -10.5, 216.5
Winner:
ATL *****
Spread:
ATL -10.5 *****
O/U:
OVER
SU Underdog:
---


CHI at CLE -12.5, 190
Winner:
CLE *****
Spread:
CHI +12.5 *****
O/U:
UNDER
SU Underdog:
---


MIL at DET -3.5, 186.5
Winner:
SPLIT
Spread:
MIL +3.5
O/U:
OVER
SU Underdog:
---


DAL -5.5 at MEM, 206
Winner:
DAL *****
Spread:
DAL -5.5
O/U:
OVER
SU Underdog:
---


CHA -3.5 at NJ, 181
Winner:
SPLIT
Spread:
CHA -3.5
O/U:
UNDER
SU Underdog:
---


MIN at NO -9, 201

Winner:
NO *****
Spread:
NO -9
O/U:
UNDER
SU Underdog:
---


BOS -4 at OKC, 192.5
Winner:
SPLIT
Spread:
BOS -4
O/U:
OVER
SU Underdog:
---


IND at UTA -8, 209.5
Winner:
UTA *****
Spread:
UTA -8 *****
O/U:
UNDER *****
SU Underdog:
---


MIA at LAL -11.5, 199
Winner:
LAL *****
Spread:
MIA +11.5
O/U:
UNDER
SU Underdog:
---



4-Dec Correct Games Win%
SU - non ***** 0 0 ---
ATS - non ***** 3 6 50.0%
O/U - non ***** 5 9 55.6%




SU ***** 4 6 66.7%
ATS ***** 1 3 33.3%
O/U ***** 1 1 100.0%




SU Overall 4 6 66.7%
ATS Overall 4 9 44.4%
O/U Overall 6 10 60.0%

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

GL!! Im with you on MIA and UTA, Do you ever plan to post the scores for your simulated outcomes like you do for FB?

Anonymous said...

I'd imagine that'd take an extra 5 or 10 minutes per post in reply to the above.

The Sim Capper said...

I need to update the model's output page in excel anyway... I suppose I could add scores to the posting template when I do that.

I'll say definitely maybe.

Anonymous said...

if the line on toronto had fallen to toronto +3 does washington become the play because you had washington by 3.4?

The Sim Capper said...

You got it