[The model's total for the TOR game was 216.3... the real game went to 216. Damn, off by 0.3 pts.]
[The model's total for the CLE game was 188.6... the real game went to 188. Shoot, off by 0.6 pts.]
[Memphis was off by a few]
[Finally, the model had 194.5 for the BOS game; Vegas had 192.5... the real game went to 192. You won that round, Vegas.]
Other close calls that I didn't post:
NYK-ATL, Model: 221.5; Actual: 221.
MIL-DET, Model: 192; Actual: 191.
In 5 out of 10 games, the model was off by 2.5 points or less. 4 out of 10 games were off by 1 point or less. Nice.
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Close lines (These are the model's numerical predictions. If you find a line that's slightly different, you can make your own adjustment to the pick.)
PHI-CHA
Total: 186.1
TOR-CHI
Total: 206.9
UTA-MIN
Total: 196.4
HOU-POR
Side: POR by 3
ORL-GS
Side: ORL by 9
Total: 219.8
(For the ORL-GS game, the model's prediction is ORL 114.4 to 105.4; Vegas's lines imply ORL 115.5 to 106. ha.)
| PHI at CHA -6, 186.5 | |
| Winner: | CHA ***** |
| Spread: | CHA -6 |
| O/U: | UNDER |
| TOR at CHI -6, 205.5 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | TOR +6 ***** |
| O/U: | OVER |
| UTA -7.5 at MIN, 197.5 | |
| Winner: | UTA ***** |
| Spread: | UTA -7.5 |
| O/U: | UNDER |
| DEN at SAS -3.5, 206.5 | |
| Winner: | SAS |
| Spread: | DEN +3.5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| ATL at DAL -5, 204 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | ATL +5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| SAC at PHX -11.5, 224.5 | |
| Winner: | PHX ***** |
| Spread: | SAC +11.5 |
| O/U: | OVER |
| HOU at POR -5, 191 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | HOU +5 |
| O/U: | OVER ***** |
| IND at LAC -3, 200.5 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | IND +3 ***** |
| O/U: | UNDER |
| ORL -9.5 at GS, 221.5 | |
| Winner: | SPLIT |
| Spread: | GS +9.5 |
| O/U: | UNDER ***** |
| 5-Dec | Correct | Games | Win% |
| SU - non ***** | 0 | 1 | 0.0% |
| ATS - non ***** | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| O/U - non ***** | 1 | 5 | 20.0% |
| SU ***** | 2 | 3 | 66.7% |
| ATS ***** | 1 | 2 | 50.0% |
| O/U ***** | 0 | 4 | 0.0% |
| SU Overall | 2 | 4 | 50.0% |
| ATS Overall | 6 | 9 | 66.7% |
| O/U Overall | 1 | 9 | 11.1% |
5 comments:
Another great night ATS. I'm just watching to see the results but it is becoming tempting to lay a wager when the profit is there.
Thanks for the hard work!
You include the totals numerical prediction for most games, but do not do the final score differential very often. Is there any reason?
I think it would helpful to see how far the system is off compared to the spread. There might be more value in games where it is further off or more agreement.
That would take extra tracking on his part. It's already probably time consuming enough to have the three different simulations running everyday to see ** picks from regular picks etc. It's easy to ask, but time consuming to do. No point in trying to dig deeper into a 59-61% ATS model.
This is about the highest kind of probability attainable mathematically on spreads. The computer group in the '80s hit around that rate on professional sports point spreads, and the market was far less efficient back then compared to today. If it's not broke, no use in fixing it.
I agree, I probably should be happy with the work he is doing... "Beggars can't be choosers" comes to mind!
I'm a computer handicapper as well and I found that my accuracy improved by almost 10% when reducing my selections to plays that are differ from the spread by 3 or more.
He's obviously a programmer, and it probably wouldn't take very long to write a program that automates this. If he's too busy, I would gladly donate my time to writing it for him if he could provide a sample output from his programs. Maybe I will try contacting him by email.
Thanks for the support, guys.
I only included the totals because the predicted totals were very close to the line. If the line changed by 0.5-1.5 points from the time I posted to the time you saw it, you would know if the pick changed.
The problem with posting the scores wasn't about extra effort... though I had to write some obnoxiously long Excel formulas... it was about too much info going to the big players.
I'll put it up for now, but I'll stop if I think I need to.
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