Wow! A few wins would have been great, but that may have been the best night ever.
Sadly, we lost 2 games by a single basket: NYK +13 and MEM -3.
Straight up picks went 6-0 (100%), that's pretty cool.
Overall ATS and O/U went 7-3 each; combined 14-6 (70%).
*****'s ATS and O/U combined for a monster 5-1 (83%).
Sweet.
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Here's the question:
Should I post early or late?
Why I should post early:
- Early lines are theoretically more favorable to the model. Even if it's just a 1-2 pt difference, that may mean an extra 1-2% accuracy in the long run.
Why I should post late:
- The final lines are in place and accessible to everyone. What's the point of having a free picks site if only a few people can use them?
If you have 30 seconds, I'd really appreciate some feedback. You can just say 'early' or 'late' or, even better, give a reason why you prefer early or late.
Thanks!
Jonathan
The Sim Capper
simcapper@gmail.com
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6 comments:
Early, never sacrifice accuracy for appeasement imho. If you are to post late, it gives line watchers less favorable conditions. Whether you post late or early, the people who view your blog late are going to get the same line, regardless of whether you posted earlier in the day or closer to game time.
Obviously, it's up to your schedule and you provide these simulations for free for everyone (thank you for this) so there can be absolutely no complaint whatever you choose to do. If you do have the option, I'd say earlier instead of later.
Early bird gets the worm. Also, I hope you are not trying to data mine your results. Choose a system that is the most profitable over a 5 year time frame for all games. The system should be robust and not jerry-rigged for one season. 55% for all games should be the goal. 80%+ is unsustainable.
early. round the same time every day.
Early.
Early, Early and even earlier. If you can't make your own adjustments for line moves then you shouldn't be betting.
Got an email vote for Later.
reasoning: everyone can get access; don't want anyone moving the market with the picks early in the day; bigger bets can be made later in the day without being noticed.
Makes sense.
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